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Week 11 player prop bets: Josh Jacobs has sweet matchup vs. Chiefs

theScore logo theScore 5 days ago Alex Kolodziej
a football player holding a baseball bat © David Eulitt / Getty Images Sport / Getty

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Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson made us look smart last weekend, easily shattering his passing yard total of 199.5 yards. Let's keep the winners coming in Week 11.

Here are which player props should be on your radar.

Aaron Jones under 53.5 rushing yards

Philip Rivers knows he can't win a shootout against Aaron Rodgers. When the Packers played Rivers and the Chargers in L.A. last season, the Bolts played keep-away. They held the ball for more than 35 minutes, posted 6.5 yards per play, and only allowed 161 yards on 21 completions to Rodgers in a rather easy 26-11 win.

If the Colts can keep Rodgers on the sideline - and have success moving the ball - then Jones' touches will dip. He hasn't taken more than 15 carries since Week 3, so he's not much of a volume threat right now anyway.

Sunday's a revenge game for Rodgers. He should stick it to Rivers and the Colts through the air, ultimately making Jones a pass here on the ground.

Matt Ryan's longest completion over 38.5 yards

Ryan will get at least one deep ball here. He's first in the league in vertical passes, and the Saints are just No. 12 in the NFL in explosive pass rate allowed, as opposed to No. 1 against the rush.


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Ryan's No. 10 in the NFL in yards per attempt and should be throwing as a 'dog to New Orleans. Don't overthink this one.

Josh Jacobs over 75.5 rushing yards

It's not always ideal to take a running back's yards over the total when his team's catching points, but it's tough to ignore the upside for Jacobs in Week 11. The Chiefs rank No. 30 in DVOA rush defense, albeit playing the ninth-easiest schedule so far. They've been poor in this department, to say the least.

Las Vegas ranks No. 12 in DVOA rush offense. The Raiders don't figure to run all that often on Sunday night as touchdown-sized underdogs, but they'll have success when they do.

Jacobs has been hot over the last three, averaging 102 rushing yards per game. He'll stay hot with a favorable matchup against the Chiefs.

Brandin Cooks over 62.5 receiving yards

I faded the Patriots' secondary last weekend by picking Jackson's passing yards over. I'll keep the trend going here with Cooks, who had a stint in New England a few years ago.

A year after grading out as the best defense in the league by Football Outsiders, the Patriots enter Week 11 dead last. They're also worst in the league in explosive pass rate and yards per completion allowed.

That's bad news against Cooks, who's had 60 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games. The Texans receiver should shatter this total relatively early in the game.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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