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Coronavirus pandemic could be over in the UK by September 30: Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave

Daily Mail logo Daily Mail 23/05/2020 Jack Elsom and Jemma Carr For Mailonline

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 13: Two women feed the squirrels as they chat and enjoy a picnic on a bench in Golders Hill Park, after aspects of the lockdown were eased, on May 13, 2020 in London, England. The prime minister announced the general contours of a phased exit from the current lockdown, adopted nearly two months ago in an effort curb the spread of Covid-19. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images) © 2020 Getty Images LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 13: Two women feed the squirrels as they chat and enjoy a picnic on a bench in Golders Hill Park, after aspects of the lockdown were eased, on May 13, 2020 in London, England. The prime minister announced the general contours of a phased exit from the current lockdown, adopted nearly two months ago in an effort curb the spread of Covid-19. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Coronavirus could be completely wiped out in the UK on September 30, according to modelling from scientists. 

A team at the Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the pandemic to pinpoint the date cases will die out in countries hardest hit by the disease.

They predict a total eradication of the bug in Britain with no new cases - or a second wave - at all from the end of September.

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More on coronavirus:

Download the Microsoft News app for full coverage of the crisis

Lockdown laws: What has changed? (PA)

How to stay safe working, travelling and shopping (Sky News)

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The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11.

a close up of a map: The model by the Singapore University of Technology predicts the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30 © Provided by Daily Mail The model by the Singapore University of Technology predicts the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30 a close up of a logo: The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11 © Provided by Daily Mail The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11

The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country, as of May 12. 

By plotting the acceleration and deceleration rates of each country's outbreak, the scientists have conjured up a prediction of when the virus will wane.

In other developments to Britain's coronavirus crisis today: 

a screenshot of a computer © Provided by Daily Mail a group of people standing in a park: This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands. Pictured: People meeting up in Wandsworth, London, today © Provided by Daily Mail This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands. Pictured: People meeting up in Wandsworth, London, today

This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands and placed millions under lockdown, will come as relief for many.

Britain today announced 282 more coronavirus deaths, including a 12-year-old with an undisclosed underlying health condition - taking the UK's total fatalities to 36,675.

However, researchers noted the predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including the restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country. 

They write: 'The wicked and uncertain nature of this pandemic makes the intent for prediction accuracy misleading.' 

a group of people swimming in a body of water: A large group of surfers gathered together to make the most of the waves at Bournemouth Pier. Lockdown measures were eased this month © Provided by Daily Mail A large group of surfers gathered together to make the most of the waves at Bournemouth Pier. Lockdown measures were eased this month a group of people walking in front of The National Gallery: In Trafalgar Square, people were out and about today. Some sat on the steps leading up to the National Gallery © Provided by Daily Mail In Trafalgar Square, people were out and about today. Some sat on the steps leading up to the National Gallery

'The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are uncertain by nature,' the report states. 

'Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.' 

The study also found predictive monitoring in early May showed the US - and second worst-hit country Brazil- could still suffer for the remainder of the year, without stricter restrictions or a vaccine.    

For Italy, which once led the world in the number of coronavirus cases, could recover by October 24, according to modeling as of May 8.

Gallery: Coronavirus outbreak around the world (Photos)

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Stay at home as much as possible to stop coronavirus spreading - here is the latest government guidance. If you think you have the virus, don't go to the GP or hospital, stay indoors and get advice online. Only call NHS 111 if you cannot cope with your symptoms at home; your condition gets worse; or your symptoms do not get better after seven days. In parts of Wales where 111 isn't available, call NHS Direct on 0845 46 47. In Scotland, anyone with symptoms is advised to self-isolate for seven days. In Northern Ireland, call your GP.


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