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What is 'no deal' Brexit? How UK will be affected if it leave EU without a deal

Evening Standard logo Evening Standard 14/09/2018 Sophie Williams

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Concerns over a no-deal scenario between Britain and the EU are heightening as the countdown to Brexit continues. 

With less than 200 days until Britain leaves the EU, Theresa May and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab have insisted that Britain will get a deal and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said in August that the issue must be tackled with “urgency.”

a close up of a sign © Provided by Independent Digital News & Media Limited As talks continue with little movement, there is a chance that Britain could be left without a deal next year.

The government have released its latest batch of papers on the impact of leaving the European Union without a deal.

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Companies such as Airbus and Siemens have supply chains and trade routes that cross borders into European Union countries and argue that a no-deal Brexit would have implications for thousands of jobs.

But what would happen if Britain left the EU without a deal?

Britain's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Dominic Raab and European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier look on as they arrive for a media briefing at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium August 21, 2018. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir © Reuters Britain's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Dominic Raab and European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier look on as they arrive for a media briefing at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium August 21, 2018. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir No transition period

A 21-month transition period has been proposed should Britain and the EU strike a deal. This allows Britain to make new trade deals with the EU.

However in a no-deal situation, there would be no adjustment time to allow for changes in laws or negotiations for trading deals.

The Irish border

Britain's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Dominic Raab shakes hands with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier as they pose for pictures after a media briefing at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium August 21, 2018. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir © Reuters Britain's Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Dominic Raab shakes hands with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier as they pose for pictures after a media briefing at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium August 21, 2018. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir Northern Ireland would be outside of the EU with no arrangements.

However, people from Ireland will continue to have the right to enter and remain in the UK.

Ireland could be under pressure from the EU to impose customs and other checks such as immigration to protect the bloc’s border.

A no-deal situation could also put pressure on the Good Friday agreement.

Video: Raab: 'We wouldn't pay a penny more' than legally required (ITN News)

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Impact on people living abroad

Britain would be able to set a control on immigration and in return Europe could retaliate.

It is unclear what would happen to over a million British people currently living in Europe.

Should a no deal happen, both British people in Europe and EU citizens living in the UK would technically have no legal status.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker talks with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier before a debate on The State of the European Union at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, September 12, 2018.  REUTERS/Vincent Kessler © Reuters European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker talks with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier before a debate on The State of the European Union at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, September 12, 2018. REUTERS/Vincent Kessler House prices

Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that house prices could plummet by a third over three years in the worst case scenario.

Mr Carney, who met with ministers this week to discuss the risks of a no-deal Brexit, also warned that homeowners could be left with negative equity and spiralling mortgage rates.

Trade

Britain would not have a trade negotiation with the EU in place meaning that the rules of the World Trade Organisation would come into effect.

European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier poses with European Council President Donald Tusk ahead of meeting in Brussels, Belgium September 13, 2018. Francisco Seco/Pool via REUTERS © Reuters European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier poses with European Council President Donald Tusk ahead of meeting in Brussels, Belgium September 13, 2018. Francisco Seco/Pool via REUTERS Tariffs would be imposed on goods that the UK sends to the EU and the same for goods that the EU sends to the UK. Tariffs on agricultural products could be as high as 60 percent.

Britain would also exit the single market for goods and agriculture which could result in red tape for businesses.

A HM Treasury forecast ahead of the referendum predicted that a no-deal scenario would "push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment."

Video: May says Europe will never be 'ordinary third party' to UK (ITN News)

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Issues at ports and airports

Queues could be longer than normal at Dover due to extensive customs checks on goods.

Freight lorries could be held for long periods of time while they are checked over however there is currently no space for them to park up while the checks are in place.

Earlier this year, the government announced plans to close part of a nearby motorway for use as a lorry park.

European Council President Donald Tusk poses with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier ahead of meeting in Brussels, Belgium September 13, 2018. Francisco Seco/Pool via REUTERS © Reuters European Council President Donald Tusk poses with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier ahead of meeting in Brussels, Belgium September 13, 2018. Francisco Seco/Pool via REUTERS It would also affect freight coming into Britain, resulting in the same queue on the EU side of the border in locations such as Rotterdam.

Some people have warned that it could result in a shortage of food however Dominic Raab said that if grocery chains made stockpiling plans, there would be “adequate food.”

Dominic Raab: Government ready to deliver no-deal Brexit
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