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UP exit polls highlights: Most survey trends give BJP edge over SP, BSP

LiveMint logoLiveMint 09-03-2017 Livemint

New Delhi: All exit polls surveys on Uttar Pradesh assembly election 2017 predict the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to emerge as the single-largest party, edging out the incumbent Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

The seven phase UP polls which ended on Wednesday has seen a triangular contest between SP, BSP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP is seen bouncing back to the centre stage in Uttar Pradesh.

Here is a primer on what different exit poll surveys are saying on the Uttar Pradesh assembly election 2017:

■ The VMR exit poll in collaboration with Times Now predicts a saffron wave in Uttar Pradesh with over 34% vote share for the BJP. According to the survey, 34% vote will roughly translate anywhere between 190-210 seats for BJP in UP. Any party needs at least 202 seats to prove its majority.

— VMR predicts 28% vote share for the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, giving it 110-130 seats. The party will emerge as the second largest in UP, according to VMR-Times Now exit poll 2017.

— Mayawati’s BSP will get between 54 and 74 seats in the UP Assembly, according to VMR-Times Now exit poll 2017.

■ NewsX-MRC exit poll also predicts BJP wave in Uttar Pradesh, predicts 185 seats for the saffron party. The UP exit poll says SP-Congress will win 120 seats and the BSP will end up with 90 seats.

Also read | Exit polls highlights: BJP seen winning UP, close fight in Punjab, Goa, Manipur

■ India News-MRC survey says the BJP will win 188 seats in UP, while the SP-Congress alliance will end up with 120 seats. The BSP is predicted to finish third with 90 seats.

■ ABP News-CSDS predicts that the BJP will win 164-176 seats, while the Congress-SP combine will win 156-169. The BSP will get 60-72 seats. In fact, ABP News-CSDS has given a phase-by-phase breakup of the results.

— Phase I (73 seats): BJP may get 33-39 seats, SP on second with 20-26 seats, BSP distant third with 12-16.

— Phase II (67 seats): BJP 15-21, SP 37-43, BSP 7-11.

— Phase III (69 seats): BJP 27-33, SP 25-31, BSP 9-13.

— Phase IV (53 seats): BJP may get 27-33 seats, followed by SP with 16-22 seats. BSP may get 2-6 seats.

— Phase V (52 seats): SP again bounces back with 21-27 seats, BJP may get 14-20 seats, BSP winning 8-12 constituencies.

— Phase VI (49 seats): BJP may get 18-24 seats, SP winning on 14-20 seats, BSP again placed at third with 8-12 seats.

— Phase VII(40 seats): BJP winning 15-21 seats, SP 9-15, BSP 6-8.

■ In Uttar Pradesh, the CNN-News18-Gramener projection says the BJP will win 161 seats, short of the 202-halfway mark. The Congress-SP alliance is tipped to get 147 seats, while the BSP is predicted to be at third spot with 81 seats.

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