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Karnataka election results: Numbers show Congress-JD(S) alliance could trouble Modi, Amit Shah in 2019 Lok Sabha polls

The Financial Express logo The Financial Express 16-05-2018 FE Online

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(Provided by The Times of India)

Karnataka election results 2018 have thrown up major surprises and the developments so far have been nothing short of dramatic. Both the BJP, which has emerged as the single largest party fell short of a majority mark, and the incumbent Congress along with key regional party Janata Dal (Secular) led by former Chief Minister H. D. Kumaraswamy are claiming stake to form the government. However, this assembly election, along with that of Rajasthan, scheduled to be held later this year, has far greater political significance as the results are indicators where political parties stand ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

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Karnataka has 28 Lok Sabha seats (21 general, 5 seats reserved for SC category, 2 are for ST). According to Indian Express report, BJP will be able to win paltry six Lok Sabha constituencies if Congress and JD(S) form a pre-poll alliance. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had won 17 seats and made gains on 132 assembly segments, according to reports. Reports say that any pre-poll alliance between Congress and JD(S) in this assembly polls would have turned gold-dust for these parties as they would have bagged 156 constituencies and BJP would have reduced to 68 Assembly seats.

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Narendra Modi et al. standing next to a man © image

Data shows that if a pre-poll alliance takes place in 2019, BJP is projected to bag seats such as Bangalore South, Bagalkote, Haveri, Dharwad, Udupi-Chikamagalur, Dakshina Kannada. A breakdown of these seats region-wise, BJP will get two seats from coastal Karnataka, one from Bengaluru region, 3 seats in Mumbai Karnataka. Interestingly, BJP appears winning not a single Lok Sabha seat in Hyderabad-Karnataka and South-Karnataka regions if the Congress-JD(S) alliance remain intact in 2019. On the other hand, Congress-JD(S) appear to win as many as 22 Lok Sabha seats ? double of what they won contesting separately in 2014.

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Similar things happen during recently held Lok Sabha bypolls of Phulpur and Gorakhpur where traditional rivals Samajwadi Party and BSP joined hands and results were BJP's shocking defeats in a state which had virtually propelled the saffron party in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, BJP had got 104 seats, Congress is second at 78 and JD(S) won 37 while Others bagged 3 out of 222 seats. Election Commission had earlier deferred polling in Rajrajeshwari Nagar seat to May 28 and countermanded polling in Bengaluru's Jayanagar seat following the death of BJP nominee BN Vijay Kumar.

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