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Investor: The 16-year bear market coming to an end

CNBC CNBC 22/02/2016 David Reid

This year will see the end of a bear market that began all the way back in 2000, at least according to one investor.

That's the opinion of Peter Toogood, Investment Director at City Financial Investment Company, who warned that there'll still be some pain before the bulls wrest back control.

"It's just a bear market, it's not the end of the world and I don't think it's 2008. But I do I think it's going to be very difficult," he said.

To back his claim of a 16 year sell-off, Toogood highlighted that in year 2000 both the FTSE and MSCI share indexes were higher than they are today.

And he warned traders would have to be fleet of foot to make money in present circumstances. 

"You can trade rallies if you want to. The new range on the FTSE is going to be 5,500 to 6,000.

"It was 6000 to 6,500 a few months ago. We've lost 500 points. That's what bear markets do rally, step down. And that's just how it is. It's just uncomfortable," said Toogood.

The investor also issued a warning for the S&P 500.

"There is a vacuum right there. If it falls below 1800 then it's going straight to 1600 as a pit stop and every technical analyst knows this as well," he warned. 

Toogood said pain this year will likely mark the end of the secular bear market which has persisted for 16 years.

And he's tipping an end to the global bear market by December this year.

"I'm very bullish past this last moment. I think we are near the end of central banker nonsense and good companies are going to start making good money."

Not all are so optimistic on the return of an equity bull run.

Louis Gargour of LNG capital says constituent make up of equity markets are often biased toward energy and banking companies.

"Those equities, particularly commodities, are not going to be growing unless we see oil rise to at least somewhere around $50 dollars per barrel," he said.

Gargour says this year might be the time to look towards investment grade bonds.

"Many under pressure mining companies have sufficient capitalization to be around for at least 3 or 4 years. They can at least pay their debt," he said. 

Technology is the Toogood's favorite sector for current investment. And until the good times appear, Toogood had some tips for riding out the storm.

"Gold and Silver is a place you can invest in and as well as investment grade bonds.

"Most of the Investment Grade universe is in pretty good shape," he said.

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