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National plunges to worst result in a decade - Newshub poll

Newshub logoNewshub 11/02/2019 Tova O'Brien

National has taken a massive hit in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll - ceding the most popular party ground to Labour.

It's a dark day for Simon Bridges; not only does next to no one think he should be Prime Minister, but under his leadership National has plunged to a record low.

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For the first time in the history of our Newshub-Reid Research Poll, National is below Labour - Bridges overseeing his party's worst result in over a decade.

National has nosedived to 41.6 percent - down 3.5 percent - and is no longer the biggest party in our poll.

a sign on the side of a building © Provided by MediaWorks NZ Limited

Labour is on 47.5 percent, up a resounding 4.9 - the highest it's ever been in our poll.

New Zealand First is nowhere (2.9 percent) - up slightly but not enough to get into Parliament, which takes 5 percent.

That leaves the Greens to prop Labour up - but only just - on 5.1 percent, a slight dip and they're now sitting perilously close to that 5 percent threshold.

How this translates to seats in Parliament

Translating that to seats in Parliament, on this poll we'd have 120 seats.

Labour gets exactly half 60 seats, and they need 61 to govern alone. National's on 53, and we assume they would do a deal in Epsom, giving ACT one seat.

a black and red sign on a pole © Provided by MediaWorks NZ Limited

The Greens' six seats go with Labour, giving them a clear majority in Parliament - so no need for Winston Peters.

What this explosive poll result meansĀ 

This poll is a game-changer, and for Simon Bridges it could be 'game over'.

But the Prime Minister's hanging the results on her team, rather than her own personal brand.

"This is, I believe, a reflection of us doing the work," she told Newshub.

The Prime Minister hasn't been without struggles - the Karel Sroubek saga was botched, the capital gains tax fight has begun and KiwiBuild is the hottest of hot messes.

But this poll proves voters don't seem to mind.

"I'll take that as a vote of confidence, but certainly won't be complacent."

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