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Despite DC Wishes, GOP Base Voters Still Want Ice Cream

The Huffington Post The Huffington Post 29/10/2015 Eric Schmeltzer

Watching the DC establishment try to get GOP base voters back on the reservation is a lot like watching a parent trying to convince a child eating who is eating ice cream to take a bite of healthful food.
"How about carrots, huh? You love carrots, don't you? Take a bite of the carrot."
"Why not try Carly Fiorina? Isn't she great? Don't you like her better than Trump?"
"Come on, eat one stick of celery. It'll be great! Yum, yum, yum!"
"How about Marco Rubio? Didn't you just love Marco last night, and want to vote for him now?"
What the fishbowl that is our nation's capital doesn't get is that, despite their greatest wish that outsiders will fade away, in favor of traditional order, GOP base voters still want their ice cream.
They want the candidate who is most likely to upend order in Washington, not sustain it. They want that gratification, not someone who will work the system with incremental changes.
The immediate insider reaction from last night's debate was that Marco Rubio won the evening. Absolutely, he showed himself to be sharp, and completely demolished Jeb Bush on the question of missing Senate votes.
He's going to make some gains, because it is his turn, like Fiorina before him, to get the kid-gloves treatment from the media. But Fiorina, despite all the media love, didn't crack 10 percent in most polling, and never came within spitting distance of Donald Trump. The same pattern will likely happen with Rubio.
He's not ice cream. He's the candidate that insiders now say is "good for you."
Despite the insider declarations that Rubio ruled the evening, the candidate who gained the most Twitter followers last night was... Ben Carson.
While that alone is not scientific, in September's debate, he and Fiorina gained the most Twitter followers. In polling that followed, they both made gains. The difference was that insiders pushed Fiorina, and panned Carson. Carson sustained and grew his gains, while Fiorina crashed. As of right now there is reason to think that while insiders thought Rubio ruled, most GOP voters still were attracted to Carson, and it is Carson, not Rubio, who will continue to make long-term gains among base voters.
"How is this possible?!" the DC bubble asks. "Ben Carson compares everything to Nazis and slavery, and then is nearly comatose at every debate!"
That he compares everything to Nazis and slavery and isn't polished at debates is exactly why the base is growing to love him.
He and Trump are everything that the media and establishment Republicans hate. And the more the elites in the media and the party express shock and dismay at their candidacies, pan their debate performances, and push Fiorina or Rubio or whoever, the more the GOP base voters take delight in backing Carson (and Trump and maybe, Cruz too, soon).
The DC freak out, essentially, is all the validation that GOP voters need, to continue heading towards the "worst" candidates. The conniptions coming from the establishment are proof that those candidates are the ones who will upend DC.
It is entirely possible that the establishment takes control and forces their candidate of choice on the GOP base. In fact, it is somewhat likely. But, as of right now, getting that ice cream cone out of the hands of the GOP base is gonna be awfully tough.

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