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Here's What The Polls Say Could Happen On Super Tuesday

The Huffington Post The Huffington Post 1/03/2016 Natalie Jackson
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It’s Super Tuesday, which means masses of people are voting and a whole lot of delegates are up for grabs. There’s not a lot of polling available for many of these states, and it isn't necessarily predictive of what will happen. But it can give us an idea of what might happen.

Democrats in 11 states -- plus abroad and in American Samoa -- and Republicans in a slightly different set of 11 states -- plus caucus-conventions in two additional states -- are headed to the polls and to caucuses. Here's the short version, followed by a breakdown of what the polls say.


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -- expected to win 8 states

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) -- expected to win 1 state

Tossup -- 2 states, plus American Samoa and Democrats abroad

Possible upset: Massachusetts


Businessman Donald Trump -- expected to win 9 states

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) -- expected to win 1 state

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) -- might be expected to win 1 state

Tossup - 1 state, plus the 2 caucus-convention states

Possible upset: Texas


Texas (Democrats - 251 delegates, Republicans - 155 delegates) : As the biggest prize, the Lone Star State has been fairly heavily polled in recent weeks. All signs point to a strong performance from Clinton , with polls showing her up on Sanders by 16 to 42 points in the last week. The Republican side is a bit more competitive . Cruz generally leads in his home state's polling, but the margin is as small as 2 points in polls out this week. The HuffPost Pollster average gives Cruz a 5.5 percent lead over Trump. Most likely winners: Clinton and Cruz, although watch out for a Trump upset. 

Georgia (Democrats - 117, Republicans - 76) : The Peach State's contests have also been fairly well-polled. There’s no ambiguity here -- all of the polls show Clinton with a large lead over Sanders and Trump with a wide margin over the rest of the Republican field. Most likely winners: Clinton and Trump.

Massachusetts (Democrats - 116, Republicans - 42) : For as many delegates as there are at stake on the Democratic side, there have been relatively few polls in Massachusetts. Clinton leads in all the polls released in the past week, but the margins are as small as 2 points. On the Republican side , Trump is way ahead of the competition. Most likely winners: Clinton, but watch out for a Sanders upset, and Trump.

Virginia (Democrats - 109, Republicans - 49) : Polling in the Old Dominion State is a little sparse but consistent. Clinton has a large lead , as does Trump . Rubio has been climbing fast in Virginia, but he would need a considerable boost to top Trump. Most likely winners: Clinton and Trump.

Minnesota (Democrats - 93, Republicans - 38) : There’s no new polling in the North Star State this month. The last poll was conducted in January, before any voting began. Quite a bit could have changed since then, plus Minnesota’s caucuses are difficult to predict. Clinton and Rubio led in that January poll , so we’ll go with that. Most likely winners: Clinton and Rubio, but we this is more uncertain.

Tennessee (Democrats - 75, Republicans - 58) : There are two polls from in The Volunteer State -- the third-largest prize for Republicans -- in the last week. Both show big leads for Clinton and Trump . As with many states, the race for second and to get to the state’s 20 percent threshold for earning delegates is on between Cruz and Rubio. Most likely winners: Clinton and Trump.

Alabama (Democrats - 60, Republicans - 50) : With very little data to go on, the Yellowhammer State looks like another Clinton / Trump  win. Rubio and Cruz will need some help to get to the 20 percent threshold for earning delegates if the polls are right. Most likely winners: Clinton and Trump, but not much data for either race.

Oklahoma (Democrats - 42, Republicans - 43) : This is the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ state on the Democratic side . Two polls out in the past week show dramatically different results -- either Clinton is ahead by 9 points or Sanders is up by 5 points. The Republicans look more firmly set on Trump, but Rubio and Cruz should get to the 15 percent threshold and claim some delegates. Most likely winners: ? and Trump.  

Arkansas (Democrats - 37, Republicans - 40) : There’s not much to go on in the Natural State either. Older polls show that it should be Clinton territory . The lone recent poll on the Republican side shows that Trump leads, with Cruz and Rubio both over 20 percent. Most likely winners: Clinton and Trump, but not much data for either race.

Vermont (Democrats - 26, Republicans - 16) : Sanders’ home state will definitely go his way. The Democratic primary won’t be much of a contest. There’s only one poll of Vermont Republicans , which shows Trump comfortably ahead. Most likely winners: Sanders and Trump, but very little data on the Republicans.

Colorado (Democrats - 78) : No polling is available for the Democratic caucus here. Most likely winner: ?

Alaska (Republicans - 28) : There’s no recent data for the Republican caucus . Over a month ago, Cruz and Trump were closely matched, but a lot has happened since then. Most likely winner: ?

Colorado and Wyoming Republican caucuses : The GOP in these states have concocted an odd sort of caucus-to-convention method of selecting their delegates. Republicans will caucus tonight, but the delegates will be awarded later in state conventions. There’s no polling or indication of how these contests might go. Most likely winners: ? and ?

Democrats in American Samoa (11) and abroad(17): Of course, we don’t have any polling data for these groups. Most likely winners: ? and ?

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