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Triple-Top Tuesday - 2,100 and Bust Again on S&P 500?

The Huffington Post The Huffington Post 3/11/2015 Phil Davis

Here we go again!  

Yet another low-volume, BS rally takes us back to the "breakout" level of S&P 2,100 and we get moves like this because TA sheeple are so easy to fool that fooling them has essentially turned into a profit center at many iBanks and Hedge Funds.


After all, what is the value of a stock if not whatever the last idiot paid for it?  Since that actually sounds like a puzzle to most of the people reading it - we Fundamental investors will always have a tremendous advantage in almost any kind of market - EXCEPT THIS ONE!  


This market, like any bubble market, is a fool's paradise that rewards the rats for hitting the BUYBUYBUY button - over and over again.  Train them well enough and, long after the cheese stops coming, the rat will still keep hitting that button, over and over again - until they have no money left to buy with - and then they seem downright surprised when they get dissected at the end of the experiment!  

11-2-2015 6-17-05 PM © Provided by The Huffington Post 11-2-2015 6-17-05 PM


Look who "won" the most recent round of S&P madness.  All the most shorted stocks led the rally - almost as if SOMEONE were purposely squeezing the stocks to force people to capitulate and buy some of the worst stocks in the index - just to provide enough energy to get us back over that 2,100 mark one more time.  How manipulated was the action?  So much so that, at 10:35 am, I was able to say to our Members:

As the moment we have Dow (/YM) 17,684 (85 off the recent high), S&P (/ES) 2,085 (9 short), Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,669 (21 shy) and Russell (/TF) 1,166 (down 10).  Figure they make an effort to get those back and a failure at 17,750 or 2,100 or 4,700 or 1,175 are all good potential short entries. 

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We hit our targets right on the button so, at 3:05 pm in our Live Chat Room, I said:

So now we're at 17,739, 2,097, 4,692 and 1,184 so the RUT popped more than we thought but, then again, we knew that one was behind the others – so it makes sense it  would move up the most.  NYSE only up just over 1% and that one too is behind (10,582), so not confirming – which makes /TF a good short at 1,185 (tight stops above) and, of course, the other lines are still good shorting targets.  


Shorting the Russell was the right move as that index took a nice dive and this morning it's failing 1,180 again for another ride down for the shorts (tight stops above) 

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When 3 of your 4 indexes top out at the exact number you predicted 5 hours and 1% earlier - you can either believe you are the greatest market predictor of all time or you can believe the markets are easily predictable computer-driven BS designed to sucker in the masses and steal their money.  I choose the latter, which makes me a humble conspiracy-theorist and NOT the World's most accurate chartist.  


Keep in mind we're just doing what we always do - we're shorting the top of the range. That's been a very profitable position for us so far and we're not too proud to go back to the well and do it again.  Officially, we began flipping our positions more bearish last week and, now that our Long-Term Portfolio is up 48% again, it's time to get a bit more aggressive with our short-term hedges to lock in those gains.  

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Remember our logic from yesterday's morning post was that SOMETHING bad was going to happen between now and Wednesday because they scheduled 13 Fed speakers to steer the markets into the end of the week.  We don't know what it is, but it's not likely to be good because you just don't need 13 Fed speakers when the market is comfortably making new highs, do you?  

So, while we wait to choose the form of the destructor, let's review a few things we MIGHT want to be concerned about - in a rational market (which this is not):

November 2 COTD 2015 © Provided by The Huffington Post November 2 COTD 2015 Just a couple of things to watch out for this week as we wait for instructions from the Fed.  Notice this chart of the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is already showing the same kind of downward-leading behavior we saw in August - right before our own "flash crash" occurred.  


We've already gone over our hedges in older posts, so I'm not going to bore you with details here but we will review them all in our Live Member Chat Room this morning and we'll review our positions today in our Live Trading Webinar at 1pm (EST).  If you are a free reader, you can see last week's Webinar replay here but you won't have access to the live ones, unfortunately. 


Be careful out there!  


 

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