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Trump, Carson Maintain Lead In Iowa And New Hampshire: Poll

The Huffington Post The Huffington Post 25/10/2015 Igor Bobic
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WASHINGTON -- A new CBS/YouGov poll shows real estate mogul Donald Trump and famed neurosurgeon Ben Carson maintaining their lead among GOP contenders in the 2016 presidential race just days away from the third Republican primary debate in Boulder, Colorado.

Among likely Republican caucus-goers in the early state of Iowa, Carson has found continued momentum and is tied with Trump at 27 percent. The candidates trailing the two men, according to the poll, are Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) at 12 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 9 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 6 percent, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) at 3 percent. The rest of the field -- Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- followed at 2 percent.

In New Hampshire, another early primary state, Trump dominates the field among likely Republican voters with 38 percent. He is followed by Carson with 12 percent, Bush with 8 percent, Rubio with 7 percent and Fiorina and Kasich with 5 percent support.

Among likely Republican voters in South Carolina, Trump similarly leads the race with 40 percent support. Carson placed second at 23 percent, followed by Cruz with 8 percent and Bush with 6 percent.

But the support for Trump and Carson, two insurgent candidates who have captured the hearts and minds of GOP primary voters, may be somewhat inflated. The poll used a mix of online and phone participants. According to polling experts, Trump's support is higher on average in Internet and automated phone polls than in interviewer-conducted phone polls. More on the poll's methodology from YouGov below:

The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4,860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3,952 respondents, the majority of which are recontacts. Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20,017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,290 phone recruits. 

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