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How Vulnerable the U.S. Economy Is -- Recession Watch

Nobody would disagree that the economy is currently in good shape, and nobody would disagree that it's in the best shape it's been in for a long time. But there's one reason it is particularly susceptible to a shock that could trigger a recession. The economy has grown to close to 5% GDP growth this year, but achieving that growth rate has taken the U.S. a very long time during this painfully long recovery from the last recession. Wage growth of 3.1% has only been achieved late this year, another sign that things have been slow to develop. "I'm not necessarily forecasting a recession, but I think that if the economy is running at a slower pace, and you get an external shock, you're at more risk of dipping into negative growth," Chief Economist at LendingTree Teendayi Kapfidze said. "In 2020, for example, I think the economy is going to be growing around that 2% level," Kapfidze said. "If we get some kind of shock externally, that really is what puts the economy at risk of a recession." He concluded saying, "certainly, there's growing risk of recession -- 2019, 2020, going forward." Former Adviser to the President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Danielle DiMartino went a step further, saying there's some possibility the economy sees a rough downturn at the end of 2019.

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