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Biden up by single point in Florida: poll

The Hill logo The Hill 10/20/2020 Morgan Gstalter
Joe Biden standing next to a fence: Biden up by single point in Florida: poll © Drew Angerer/Getty Images Biden up by single point in Florida: poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a single-point lead over President Trump in Florida, according to a poll released Tuesday from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab.

When asked who they would vote for if the Nov. 3 election were held today, 48 percent of respondents indicated an intention to vote for the former vice president. That is a razor-thin advantage over Trump, who had the support of 47 percent of respondents. Biden's lead is within the poll's 3.3-percentage-point margin of error.

The survey mirrors a Hill-Harris poll of Florida released last week that showed both candidates deadlocked with 48 percent.

A win for Biden in the Sunshine State could potentially be catastrophic for Trump's reelection chances. The president carried the state in 2016 by a little more than 100,000 votes and has made it a central part of his campaign for a second term, even becoming a Florida resident last year.

However, the president's job approval rating there is underwater. According to the poll, 49 percent of likely voters disapprove of the job he did in office, compared to 47 percent who approve.

The state shattered its in-person voting opening day record on Monday, with at least 350,000 ballots cast on the first day of early voting.

Vote-by-mail in the state has already seen massive turnout, with more than 2.5 million ballots collected heading into the first day of early voting. That's more than 20 percent of the total voter turnout the Sunshine State saw in 2016.

In the UNF poll, 43 percent of respondents said they would vote by mail compared to 29 percent planning to vote early in-person and 26 percent voting on Election Day.

Extensive mail-in balloting, caused in part by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, has led to 25 percent of the poll's respondents indicating they had already cast their ballot.

The poll was conducted among 863 registered, likely Florida voters between Oct. 12 and Oct. 16. The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points.

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