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Trump voters confident, Biden supporters nervous

Washington Examiner logo Washington Examiner 10/20/2020 Emily Larsen
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WILKES-BARRE, Pennsylvania — Scars from the 2016 presidential campaign are a major force in the dichotomy between supporters of President Trump and Joe Biden when it comes to personal predictions about who will win the 2020 election.

Loyal Trump supporters feel certain that he is going to win the election. But those who support the former vice president and Democratic presidential nominee are not so confident.

“Oh, it's gonna be a revolution,” said Luigi Tesoro, an Italian immigrant who said his first vote for president after becoming a citizen was for Trump. “I know he's gonna win.”

Tesoro, 55, had several Trump signs and flags outside his home and ground-floor barbershop outside Scranton, Pennsylvania. He doesn’t have a problem with vandalism, he said, because of the pro-Second Amendment warning signs he also has hung. He pulled out a .25mm handgun from the pocket of his NYPD sweatshirt as proof.

Michelle Grochalski, who attended a Trump campaign event last week that featured the president’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump in Boiling Springs, Pennsylvania, agreed.

By a lot or a little?

“Landslide,” she said, attributing her prediction to just a “feeling.” At the same event, Bruce Fields, 66, said that he expects Trump to win by “more than before.”

Their sentiments echo messages coming from the Trump campaign: Public polls are “fake” and flawed, and the president is set to surprise the Washington elite again just as he did in 2016.

The shock of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss also reverberates through the Biden campaign. “ Ignore the polls” is a common refrain, and they warn their supporters not to become complacent.

That message hits home with Scott Hoffman, a 51-year-old property maintenance worker in Wilkes-Barre. Outside his house sits an RV with two large Biden-Harris signs attached to the sides. Asked if he thinks Biden is going to win, Hoffman said, “I would hope so.”

Part of the reason he’s hesitant is that he expected Clinton to win in 2016 and then procrastinated and didn’t vote that year. He’s changing that this year, but said, “I don't want to count my chickens before, put the carriage ahead of the horse, so to speak.”

Economist/YouGov national tracking polls regularly ask voters who they expect to win the presidential election, regardless of who they plan to vote for. Trump supporters have consistently far-outpaced Biden supporters in believing that their preferred candidate will prevail.

An Oct. 11-13 poll found that 79% of Trump supporters expected him to win, while 18% were unsure, and 4% expected Biden to win. Among Biden supporters, 70% expected the former vice president to win, while 6% said that Trump will win, and 24% were unsure.

But Trump supporters’ confidence has dwindled over time.

In a Sept. 13-15 Economist/YouGov poll, 90% of Trump supporters thought he would win, and 9% were unsure, while 68% of Biden supporters thought the former vice president would prevail, and 26% were unsure.

The result is an overall shift away from a plurality of registered voters long believing that Trump would win the election despite Biden leading in national and state battleground polls.

In the September poll, 42% of voters thought Trump would win, 35% thought Biden would prevail, and 23% were not sure. That changed in October to 39% believing Biden will win, 38% thinking Trump will win, and 24% unsure.

Give the chance to elaborate, Biden voters say that they are cautiously optimistic.

“It’s going to be close. A lot of Trumpers switched over, I think,” said Brian Healey of Jenkins Township, 58, who works in drafting and design and keeps a Biden-Harris flag on his front porch. “I have a funny feeling. Just by — on social media, a lot of the people that were blasting about Trump before aren’t doing it now.”

Asked about the Biden signs in front of his neighbors’ houses down the street, Tesoro, the Trump-supporting barber, scoffed. “Maybe they collect unemployment,” he said.

Trump supporter confidence could mean that they are the ones shocked at the election results this time.

In the last Economist/YouGov during the 2016 cycle, 51% of likely voters expected Clinton to win, 27% thought Trump would win, and 22% were not sure. A large 83% of Clinton supporters expected her to win, compared to just 59% for Trump supporters.

Tags: News, 2020 Elections, Campaign, Campaigns, Campaign 2020, Pennsylvania

Original Author: Emily Larsen

Original Location: Trump voters confident, Biden supporters nervous


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