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What needs to happen now to avert a government shutdown

CNN logo CNN 2/12/2019 By Clare Foran and Ted Barrett, CNN
The US Capitol dome and it's reflection are seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on December 29, 2012. As the fiscal cliff deadline looms, Congress and the White House have still not reached a compromise. If no deal is struck by December 31 at midnight, taxes will automatically go up on both high earners and the middle class, and across-the-board spending cuts will go into effect. AFP PHOTO/Karen BLEIER (Photo credit should read KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images) © KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images The US Capitol dome and it's reflection are seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on December 29, 2012. As the fiscal cliff deadline looms, Congress and the White House have still not reached a compromise. If no deal is struck by December 31 at midnight, taxes will automatically go up on both high earners and the middle class, and across-the-board spending cuts will go into effect. AFP PHOTO/Karen BLEIER (Photo credit should read KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images)

A tentative border security deal has been agreed to on Capitol Hill, but there is still more work to be done in Washington before a partial government shutdown can be averted -- and there are plenty of opportunities along the way for a deal to be derailed.

Congressional negotiators emerged from talks on Monday night to announce that they had reached an agreement "in principle" to stave off a shutdown. It remains unclear, however, whether President Donald Trump will support the deal, which does not meet his demand of $5.7 billion in border wall funding.

Lawmakers are racing against the clock to pass a deal that can be signed into law before midnight on Friday night, when funding will expire for parts of the federal government.

One Democratic aide told CNN on Monday that there is still "a ton of work to do once they have an agreement reached" to ready any legislation to be taken up on the floor of both chambers.

Here's what needs to happen now:

1. House expected to vote after bill text released

Top-line details from the tentative agreement emerged on Monday night, including that the deal is slated to provide $1.375 billion for barrier funding that will cover roughly 55 miles of new barrier.

But the full legislative text has not yet been released and that will need to happen ahead of any votes in the House.

Typically, the House has a 72-hour wait period before voting on legislation after it is filed, a rule intended to give lawmakers time to review bill text before voting on it. That rule applies to legislation that is not being taken up under a suspension of the rules, but it can be waived in emergency situations to speed consideration of legislation and a looming shutdown could be deemed one such situation.

The deal will undoubtedly be deemed unacceptable by some of the chamber's most conservative and most liberal members. GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, a co-founder of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, called it a "bad deal" on Monday, while GOP Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina, the current chair of the Freedom Caucus, said it was "hardly a serious attempt to secure our border or stop the flow of illegal immigration."

But there is little appetite for another shutdown on Capitol Hill among Democrats and Republicans in both the House and Senate. The expectation for now is that the House, which is controlled by a Democratic majority, will have the votes needed to pass the deal.

2. Senate expected to vote after the House takes up the measure

The Senate could move fairly quickly once the House has voted as long as there are no senators who act to slow down the process.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday in remarks on the Senate floor, "I look forward to reviewing the full text as soon as possible and hope the Senate can act on this legislation in short order."

If the Kentucky Republican is able to get unanimous consent to move forward with the bill -- meaning that no senator raises any objection -- passage could come quickly.

If that is not possible due to objections, however, the process of bringing the measure to a vote would take longer to unfold. McConnell could still move to break a filibuster, however, by filing for cloture. That would then be subject to a 60-vote threshold.

If some unforeseen complication jeopardizes the timeline for passage, congressional leaders could also opt to fall back on a stopgap spending bill to keep the government open while they continue to work on final passage of a longer-term deal.

3. The key unanswered question: Will the President support the deal?

The central factor that has injected uncertainty into efforts to avert a shutdown is the question of what the President will accept and if he will sign off on a final deal that falls short of his border wall demands.

On Tuesday, Trump expressed distaste for the tentative deal, saying during a Cabinet meeting, "I have to study it. I'm not happy about it. It's not doing the trick."

But he also said he does not think it's likely the government will shut down again after Friday. "I don't think you're going to see a shutdown," Trump said.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told CNN on Tuesday of the President's reaction to the deal, "I don't think it's everything that he had hoped for."

"He is not ecstatic over the deal but I do think he's reviewing his options," Cornyn said, adding, "I flew back with him last night. He didn't make any declarative statements about what his intentions are but obviously it's a compromise, and with compromises everybody's a little bit unhappy."

CNN's Ashley Killough, Phil Mattingly, Kevin Liptak and Maegan Vazquez contributed to this report.

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