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Who will win the BMW Championship? Odds, best bets, expert sleeper picks for Round 2 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs at Wilmington

Sporting News logo Sporting News 8/17/2022 Sloan Piva
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The FedEx Cup playoffs resume this weekend at the BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware, the first-ever PGA TOUR event at this course. The second of three legs, the BMW features the 68 FedEx Cup points leaders following the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind last weekend. Sporting News has all the betting odds, best bets, sleepers, and course information you need to prepare for this exciting event. 

One of our value picks last week, Will Zalatoris, fought off Sepp Straka in an exciting playoff at the St. Jude on Sunday. Zalatoris finally got over the hump to bag his first career PGA TOUR victory, and now he's positioned ahead of Scottie Scheffler atop the FedEx Cup rankings. He will look to hold onto that position this weekend, as the top-30 FedEx Cup points leaders following the BMW Championship will advance to the final playoff event, The Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.

This weekend's event has no in-tournament cuts — 68 players tee off Thursday, and (barring injury) 68 players will finish 18 holes on Sunday. But 38 of those 68 golfers will not make it to the PGA TOUR Championship next weekend, so the stakes are pretty dang high. With a star-studded field — as well as a $15 million pot at the end of this three-tournament playoff rainbow — golf enthusiasts should be in for a real treat this weekend. 

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Along with Zalatoris and Scheffler — the latter of whom struggled at the St. Jude Championship — all eyes will certainly be on Tony Finau, who finished T5 last weekend and won his two previous events. We'll also be watching reigning FedEx Cup playoff champion and OWGR No. 4 Patrick Cantlay. Rory McIlroy, one of the game's biggest stars and the OWGR No. 3, will be looking to rebound from an abysmal showing at the Northern Trust (Note: Open Championship winner and OWGR No. 2 Cam Smith has withdrawn from the BMW with hip pain, but we will likely still see him next week).

So, who will win the BMW Championship and bring momentum into the PGA TOUR Championship? Let's break down the latest tournament odds, best bets, and sleepers for this exciting midsummer playoff tournament.

BMW Championship: Odds board

All odds via DraftKings

Golfer Winner Top 5 Top 10
Rory McIlroy +1000 +250 +120
Patrick Cantlay +1400 +300 +140
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1400 +330 +150
Justin Thomas +1400 +330 +150
Jon Rahm +1400 +300 +140
Xander Schauffele +1400 +330 +150
Will Zalatoris +1400 +300 +140
Tony Finau +1400 +300 +140
Scottie Scheffler +1400 +330 +150
Collin Morikawa +2000 +350 +225
Sungjae Im +2000 +350 +225
Cameron Young +2500 +550 +250
Sam Burns +2500 +500 +240
Viktor Hovland +3000 +500 +240
Max Homa +3500 +550 +250
Joo-Hyung Kim +3500 +550 +250
Jordan Spieth +4000 +650 +300
Joaquin Niemann +4000 +650 +300
Shane Lowry +4000 +650 +300
Corey Conners +5000 +800 +350
Tyrrell Hatton +5000 +800 +350
Aaron Wise +6000 +1000 +450
Adam Scott +6000 +1000 +450
Keith Mitchell +6500 +1100 +500
Hideki Matsuyama +6500 +1100 +500
Cam Davis +6500 +1100 +500
Billy Horschel +6500 +1100 +500
Russell Henley +7000 +1200 +550
Maverick McNealy +7000 +1200 +550
Mito Pereira +7000 +1200 +550
Davis Riley +7000 +1200 +550
Brian Harman +7000 +1200 +550
Seamus Power +7000 +1200 +550
Sahith Theegala +9000 +1400 +600
Keegan Bradley +9000 +1400 +600
J.T. Poston +9000 +1400 +600
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9000 +1400 +600
Taylor Pendrith +9000 +1400 +600
Harold Varner III +13000 +1600 +700
Denny McCarthy +13000 +1600 +700
Chris Kirk +13000 +1600 +700
Alex Noren +13000 +1600 +700
Scott Stallings +15000 +2000 +800
Kevin Kisner +15000 +2000 +800
K.H. Lee +15000 +2000 +800
Emiliano Grillo +15000 +2000 +800
Wyndham Clark +15000 +2000 +800
Trey Mullinax +15000 +2000 +800
Troy Merritt +15000 +2000 +800
Taylor Moore +15000 +2000 +800
Si Woo Kim +15000 +2000 +800
Sebastian Munoz +15000 +2000 +800
Brendan Steele +15000 +2000 +800
Alex Smalley +15000 +2000 +800
Andrew Putnam +15000 +2000 +800
Adam Hadwin +15000 +2000 +800
Matt Kuchar +20000 +2500 +1000
Marc Leishman +20000 +2500 +1000
Lucas Herbert +20000 +2500 +1000
Lucas Glover +20000 +2500 +1000
J.J. Spaun +20000 +2500 +1000
Chez Reavie +20000 +2500 +1000
Cameron Tringale +20000 +2500 +1000
Sepp Straka +20000 +3500 +1200
Mackenzie Hughes +25000 +3500 +1200
Luke List +25000 +3500 +1200
Kurt Kitayama +25000 +3500 +1200
Tom Hoge +25000 +3500 +1200

BMW Championship 2022: Best bets

Rory McIlroy (+1000)

We barely saw McIlroy at the St. Jude Classic — he missed the cut after opening rounds of 70 and 69 — but he should be able to bounce back nicely this weekend. Wilmington favors the cream of the ball-striking and putting crops, and McIlroy continues to impress in both those departments. This season, he has maintained the best scoring average (68.6), second-highest average driving distance (319.5), and fifth-best birdie average (4.42). 

Only one golfer in the tournament field  — Justin Thomas — has ever played this course, so it would surprise nobody if McIlroy dominated this event and made up serious ground in the FedEx Cup points standings. He's currently in ninth place entering this weekend, but he could easily find himself in first going into East Lake. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400)

We went with Fitzpatrick as a best bet last week, and he ultimately finished tied for fifth. Well, we're going with Fitz again this weekend, as his tee-to-green and around-the-green skills are phenomenal. He also researches courses as well as anyone on the TOUR, and he always seems poised under pressure. Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a breakout year — he won the U.S. Open at TCC Brookline and trails only McIlroy with a 68.9 scoring average. A FedEx Cup playoff victory would continue what has been a dream run for the 27-year-old.

Justin Thomas (+1400) 

Thomas has an obvious advantage this weekend, being the only golfer in the field to have ever played at Wilmington. He also ranks thirds in Shots Gained: Total thanks to his strong ball-striking and approach games. He hits a ton of fairways (530 this season) and has the second-highest birdie average (4.66) on the TOUR. If he brings the heat with the putter — historically one of his only weaknesses — he could easily pull down the victory.

Other great bets: Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele (all +1400)

BMW Championship: Top value bets

Viktor Hovland (+3000)

Like our top value bet (and ultimate winner) Zalatoris last week, Hovland has stood out this season as a young golfer who does a lot of things well. He enjoys similar success with the driver, iron, wedge, and putter, so he should be confident going into a course that rewards both power and efficiency. This feels like great value. 

Adam Scott (+6000) 

Scott had a T5 at the Northern Trust last weekend, and he finished in the top 15 at both the U.S. Open and Open Championships. And yet, nobody ever seems to talk about him! He can be streaky, but when everything clicks for him, he can make a lot of noise in a big tournament. I like the value at +6000, but you may feel more comfortable with his +450 to place top 10 (he had four top-10 finishes this season). 

Other great value bets: Sam Burns (+2500), Cameron Young (+2500), Shane Lowry (+4000)

BMW Championship 2022: Top sleeper/long shot

Denny McCarthy (+13000)

McCarthy has established a reputation as an accurate driver and an even more proficient putter. He ranks 29th on the TOUR in hit fairways (65.9 percent) and third in SG: Putting (.778). He enjoyed opening rounds of 66 and 65 at the St. Jude last weekend, and he could very well crush this straightforward course if he's clicking on all cylinders. 

Other great sleepers: Billy Horschel (+6500), Lucas Glover and Sepp Straka (both +20000)

BMW Championship 2022: Best bets to place

Scottie Scheffler (+330 top five)

Scheffler's not the type of guy to get rattled after a poor performance in Round 1 of the playoffs, especially on a course that most golfers would consider to be far less challenging than TPC Southwind. He's one of the best overall golfers in the world, and he should be focused and motivated after Zalatoris passed him in FedEx Cup points. Scheffler should be a fun watch this weekend. 

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Tony Finau (+300 top five) 

Nobody in the sport has been hotter than Big Tone since late July. The lumbering 6-4 Utah native won the last two tournaments of the season — the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic — and finished T5 at the Northern Trust (which he won last year). Overall, he has placed T5 or better in five of his last eight tournaments. He hit greens in regulation at a whopping 71-percent clip this season and finished top 12 in SG in off-the-tee, tee-to-green, approach, and total.

Collin Morikawa (+225 top 10)

Morikawa finished T5 at Southwind last weekend, the same result he enjoyed at the U.S. Open two months ago. He hits fairways at a 65.9-percent clip (29th on the TOUR), and maintains the third-best SG: Approach (.883). We've seen Morikawa finish -24 and -25 in tournaments this season, numbers we may need to see from the ultimate winner this weekend in Wilmington. He should at least have a good shot at making the top 10, something the 25-year-old has pulled off eight times this season. 

BMW Championship 2022: Course breakdown for Wilmington Country Club

Wilmington Country Club's South Course makes its PGA TOUR debut this weekend. A much easier course than Round 1's hazard-filled TPC Southwind, Wilmington South should be host to a field day of low scores from a bevy of pros hungry for next week's $15 million jackpot.

A par-71 measuring 7,534 yards, Wilmington South runs along a gorgeous stretch of northern Delaware terrain. To be fair, it does include some narrow fairways, some of which also feature bunkers and water hazards. Golfers will be compelled to bring a good balance of power and accuracy, basically following the age-old mantra 'hit it hard, and hit it straight.' They will also need putt efficiency on the larger-than-average greens.

Wilmington isn't the most spectacularly-designed course, nor is it a total snooze-fest. It's perfectly average, but it should provide for plenty of above-average efforts from the best in the game for Round 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

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