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MLB Rookie of the Year 2022 odds update: Julio Rodriguez remains AL favorite, Jack Suwinski among NL sleepers

Sporting News logo Sporting News 6/23/2022 Nick Musial

With the All-Star break inching closer, we’re getting a better feel for how the Rookie of the Year race may shape up. Since our last Rookie of the Year odds update, Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez (-120) has gained more traction as the favorite in the AL, while the NL race has tightened following two rough outings from MacKenzie Gore (+350) coupled with the recent recall of prized prospect Oneil Cruz (+450).

Below, we’ll break down the top contenders and some of our favorite sleepers and long shots to win the awards.

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NL Rookie of the Year 2022 odds: Favorite

All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

MacKenzie Gore, SP, Padres +350 (implied probability 22.22 percent)

Gore’s odds have shot up from +150 to +350 since our last update after his two worst outings of his short career. Gore is still positioned as the odds-on favorite, but Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (+400) and Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz (+450) are making things interesting.

Our own Jovan Alford pointed out you shouldn’t rush to the window to bet Gore, saying, “Right now, there’s no value in taking Gore’s NL ROY odds at +150, but if other rookies start pushing him – or he even has one or two poor stars in a row – we could see his odds tumble.”

Well, Gore’s coming off two poor starts in back-to-back outings against a subpar Rockies’ offense that ranks 24th in wRC+ (91). On April 11, Gore couldn’t make it out of the third inning, surrendering six earned runs on five hits while allowing a career-high four walks. In his next appearance against Colorado, this time inside hitter-friendly Coors Field, he allowed a career-high eight earned runs on nine hits over four frames.

Baseball’s a humbling sport – and two bad outings isn’t a huge cause for concern – but it certainly opens up the NL Rookie of the Year race. Gore’s slated to face a resurgent Phillies bunch tomorrow night as he attempts to put forth a quality start.

I’d still hold off on getting involved with him, but continue to keep an eye on how his odds fluctuate.

AL Rookie of the Year 2022 odds: Favorite

Julio Rodriguez, CF, Mariners -120 (implied probability 54.55 percent)

On the AL side of things, Rodriguez continues to produce as a reliable middle-of-the-order bat for Seattle. Rodriguez’s been red hot over the past month, slashing .293/.359/.526 with six homers and 19 RBIs.

He’s also a major threat on the bases, notching eight steals over the past 30 days. Additionally, his defense is elite, sitting in the 94th percentile in outs above average.

The AL race isn’t nearly as tight as the NL, and it actually may be worthwhile to lay the juice on J-Rod to win AL Rookie of the Year honors. There’s a good chance his odds continue to increase with his steady play, as it might only be a matter of time until he hits the -200 mark.

NL Rookie of the Year 2022 odds: Best sleeper

Jack Suwinski, OF, Pirates +1300 (implied probability 7.14 percent)

Despite the hype surrounding Oneil Cruz’s recent recall to the majors, Suwinski has been the most impressive rookie this year for the Buccos. Suwinski has an outside shot to win NL Rookie of the Year, as his odds have significantly increased over the past two weeks.

The Chicago product had a memorable performance in Pittsburgh’s 4-3 win over San Francisco last Sunday. Suwinski put forth a three home run, three RBI showing, capped off by a walk-off solo shot off Giants reliever Tyler Rogers. Suwinski was the first-ever rookie to have a three-homer day that ended in walk-off fashion.

Sunday’s walk-off was Suwinski’s second walk-off long ball of the season, as he took veteran closer Mark Melancon deep in the Pirates 2-1 victory over the Diamondbacks on June 4.

Suwinski now leads all rookies in home runs (11) and sports a respectable .472 slugging percentage. Don’t be surprised to see Suwinski continue to climb up the odds board.

AL Rookie of the Year 2022 odds: Best sleeper

Jake Burger, 3B, White Sox +3000 (implied probability 3.23 percent)

Burger’s been one of the consistent pieces on an underperforming White Sox team, but his teams’ performance doesn’t hurt his chance to sneak into the AL Rookie of the Year conversation.

Burger ranks second among all AL rookies in home runs (9) and third in RBIs (28), as the Southsiders have relied on his stable production. Burger will continue to be a featured piece in the White Sox batting order, especially with fellow 3B Yoan Moncada landing on the IL with a strained right hamstring.

If you’re wanting to take a chance on a sleeper in the AL, there’s a shot Burger’s odds increase as the season progresses.

NL Rookie of the Year 2022 odds: Best long shot

Christopher Morel, CF, Cubs +2500 (implied probability 3.85 percent)

Heading up to the North Side, Morel’s been one of the few bright spots for the Cubs this season. The 22-year-old outfielder has earned the opportunity to play every day, entering June 23 with a .261 batting average, 0.5 WAR, and 119 OPS+.

Morel also sits in the 90 percentile in both max exit velocity and barrel percentage while sporting a .201 ISO. His high energy is a welcomed sign for a Cubs team sitting in fourth place in the NL Central, and his consistent top-of-the-lineup prowess makes for an intriguing Rookie of the Year long-shot value play.

AL Rookie of the Year 2022 odds: Best long shot

Shane Baz, SP, Rays +5000 (implied probability 1.96 percent)

Baz entered the season as a contender to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors with his odds around +1350 near opening day despite undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow in late March.

Baz returned to the big leagues on June 11 and has since made three appearances. His most recent appearance against the Yankees on June 22 was effective, as he logged 4.2 innings and allowed just one run on a solo shot by AL MVP front-runner Aaron Judge.

His 4.15 ERA doesn’t appear great on the surface, but his 3.80 xFIP points toward more success in the future. Baz’s .191 opponent batting average indicates he has an impressive arsenal that’s tough to consistently hit.

At 50-1, now’s the time to buy low on Baz if you want to sprinkle a tiny bit on an AL long shot.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds: Top 10

Player Team Odds
MacKenzie Gore Padres +350
Spencer Strider Braves +400
Oneil Cruz Pirates +450
Michael Harris Braves +500
Nolan Gorman Cardinals +800
Brendan Donovan Cardinals +1300
Seiya Suzuki Cubs +1400
Jack Suwinski Pirates +1500
Christopher Morel Cubs +2500
Alek Thomas Diamondbacks +3000

AL Rookie of the Year Odds: Top 10

Player Team Odds
Julio Rodriguez Mariners -120
Jeremy Pena Astros +250
Bobby Witt Jr. Royals +550
Joe Ryan Twins +2000
Adley Rutschman Orioles +3000
Riley Greene Tigers +3000
Jake Burger White Sox +3000
Spencer Torkelson Tigers +4000
MJ Melendez Royals +4000
Shane Baz Rays +5000
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