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Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 131-94 run

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 12/6/2021 CBS Sports Staff
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The Denver Broncos (6-5) travel to play the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) on primetime on Sunday Night Football. This matchup features a high-powered offense against a stout defense. The Chiefs are second in the NFL and average 402.4 total yards per game. The Broncos on the other hand are ninth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (330.8).

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points in the latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under is 46.5. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Broncos vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and SNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and Sunday Night Football betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs:

  • Broncos vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -8.5 
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs over-under: 46.5 points 
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -420, Denver +320 
  • KC: Under is 5-1 in Chiefs' last six games as favorites 
  • DEN: Broncos are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games in Week 13
Featured Game| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Moneyline
Spread
Total
KC
-430
BET NOW
-8.5
-110
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o46.5
-110
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DEN
+330
BET NOW
+8.5
-110
BET NOW
u46.5
-110
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Video: Highlights: Chiefs D deflates Broncos in Week 13 (NBC Sports)

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Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs' defense has played outstandingly over the past four weeks. It didn't allow more than 20 points in the month of November, including two games with fewer than 10 points. From Weeks 8-11, the most yards given up by Kansas City was 301. It held Jordan Love and Dak Prescott to fewer than 200 passing yards.

Rookie linebacker Nick Bolton has been very solid for the Chiefs. He leads the squad with 79 total tackles, including 50 solo. Bolton also leads the team with 11 tackles for loss. The Missouri product has recorded at least seven total tackles in six games this season and had back-to-back games with double-digit tackles. Against the Tennessee Titans, he had a career-high 15 stops and then the following week against the New York Giants, Bolton tallied 11 total tackles. 

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are ranked ninth in total defense (330.8) and third in points per game (17.8). This group has allowed fewer than 20 points in seven games this season. Safety Justin Simmons is second on the team with 56 total tackles. The Boston College product is sixth in the NFL in pass deflections (11) and seventh in interceptions (four). 

Rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II has played lights-out football. Surtain II is fourth on the squad in tackles with 37 and second on the team with three interceptions. Last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, Surtain II finished with five total tackles, two interceptions, and two pass deflections. The sticky-handed cornerback picked off Justin Herbert and returned it 70 yards for a touchdown.

How to make Broncos vs. Chiefs picks 

SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 48 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Broncos vs. Chiefs picks at SportsLine

So who wins Chiefs vs. Broncos on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,100 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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