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Joe Burrow leading Bengals in a prime under spot

Yahoo Sports US logo Yahoo Sports US 1/18/2022 Mark Drumheller

The Los Angeles Rams rolled to a 34-11 victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night to punch their ticket to Tampa Bay for this week's divisional round playoff. Rams quarterback Matt Stafford quieted any concerns over his erratic end to the season with a clean performance, throwing only four incompletions. Despite Stafford's success, the game landed under the 48.5 point total. Unders were 4-2 in wild-card weekend, mirroring the success we saw during the season.

Sadly, the season is winding down and our opportunities are limited. The divisional round provides us with four options, forcing me to consider some overs as well. This weekend's card features a game of explosive offenses that provide too much value to disregard. I have something for everybody in my two best bets for totals for this weekend.

Cincinnati at Tennessee (Under 46.5)

Derrick Henry is back for the Titans and is poised to have a monster game against the Bengals' depleted defensive front. While the Titans' star running back steals the headlines, it's the Tennessee defense that has been dragging this team to the playoffs. The Titans rank first in the league in defensive success rate and 4th in EPA allowed per dropback in the second half of the season. Tennessee games are 6-3 to the under during that same period.

Joe Burrow's offense presents a much more challenging threat than the Titans' encountered in the AFC South. However, the Bengals' rising star is at his best when the defense sends the house. Per PFF, Burrow is the league's No.1 rated QB against the blitz this season. It's unlikely that Titans' head coach Mike Vrabel falls into that trap, considering they have the fifth-lowest blitz percentage this season.


Video: Rams vs. Buccaneers preview Divisional Round (NFL)

Will Joe Burrow keep rolling in the NFL playoffs? (AP Photo/Emilee Chinn) © Provided by Yahoo! Sports Will Joe Burrow keep rolling in the NFL playoffs? (AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)

A defense's best friend is an offense that holds the ball and that's something this Tennessee offense does as well as anybody in the NFL. We have a Titans team that ranks second in time of possession per game matched up with a Bengals offense that is 30th in pace of play. Joe Burrow can't score from the sidelines. Give me the under.

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay (Over 48.5)

Tom Brady's offense didn't miss Antonio Brown in its 31-15 win over the Eagles. The Bucs have been exceptional at home all season, scoring 30 or more points in eight of nine games. The shutout loss to the Saints in Week 15 is the only blemish and certainly looks more and more like an outlier. The Rams do a great job at covering tight ends, but Rob Gronkowski is going to eat regardless.

L.A. 's offense should be able to run the ball effectively and use its weapons at wideout to exploit Tampa's secondary, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. With Cam Akers looking good, Sean McVay has the balance in this offense to keep the Bucs' defense from teeing off on Matthew Stafford. The Rams scored in the 30's in 12 games this season, and we most likely only need them to reach 24 to cash this bet. The Bucs rank first in offensive DVOA and the Rams are eighth, making this an ideal spot for the over. Both coaches will rely on the arms of their quarterbacks with a berth in the conference championship on the line.

Stats provided by teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, pro football reference.com, and Ben Baldwin (based on 10/90 WP).

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