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2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 5 prediction from proven hockey model

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 6/24/2022 CBS Sports Staff
Dec 12, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (19) looks on during the third period against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena. © Provided by CBS Sports

Dec 12, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Jonathan Toews (19) looks on during the third period against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena.

The Colorado Avalanche can accomplish the highest team goal in the hockey world on Friday evening. Colorado leads the Tampa Bay Lighting by a 3-1 margin in the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals, with Game 5 looming. The Avalanche can clinch the best-of-seven series and a title with a win, while Tampa Bay aims to stay alive. Colorado is seeking its first Stanley Cup since 2001, and the Lightning are attempting to pull off a monster comeback in search of a third straight championship.

The opening faceoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Denver. Colorado is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Avalanche odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a +160 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Avalanche vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Avalanche -190, Lightning +160
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Avalanche -1.5 (+145)
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • TB: The Lightning were 24-15-2 in regular season road games
  • COL: The Avalanche were 32-5-4 in regular season home games
Featured Game| Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Spread
Total
COL
-190
BET NOW
-1.5
+145
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o6
+100
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TB
+160
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+1.5
-170
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u6
-120
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Why the Avalanche can win

Following a 56-win season, the Avalanche have been the best team in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final by a wide margin. Colorado is 15-3 overall in the playoffs, including 8-1 in the last nine games, and the Avalanche are taking advantage of power plays. Colorado is 6-for-13 on power plays against Tampa Bay in the series, converting more than 46 percent of chances. 

On the other end, the Avalanche have killed 13 of 14 power plays in the series, raising the team's percentage to 80.4 percent in the postseason. Colorado leads the playoffs with 4.50 goals per game, racking up 129 assists and 210 points in the process. The Avalanche also lead the league in postseason power play percentage (34.5 percent), with a very strong 11.3 percent shooting percentage. In addition, Tampa Bay has the most penalty minutes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Colorado is giving up only 2.83 goals per game in the postseason. 

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay's roster is battle-tested, as the Lightning are the first team since Edmonton nearly four decades ago to reach the Stanley Cup Final three straight times. The Lightning overcame a 3-2 deficit earlier in the postseason, and Tampa Bay's defense is firming up with only five goals allowed, including one in overtime, over the last two games. Tampa Bay's offense is dynamic, averaging 3.48 goals per game in the regular season and ranking No. 3 in the NHL in shooting percentage at 11.2 percent. The Lightning were also in the top 10 in goals allowed and save percentage, with a four-time All-Star goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has 71 saves in the last two games, and Tampa Bay has offensive firepower in front of him. 

Steven Stamkos was in the top 10 of the NHL in goals and assists this season, and he has 10 playoff goals. Nikita Kucherov, a four-time All-Star, finished No. 2 in the NHL in points per game (1.47) this season and has 26 points in the playoffs. Victor Hedman is playing as well as any player in the series, and the talented defenseman is capable of boosting Tampa Bay on both ends of the ice.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 7.1 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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