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The Voice Predictions: Who's Most Likely to Win Season 11?

TVLine logo TVLine 12/13/2016 Michael Slezak
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It’s been a long time between drinks for Blake Shelton — at least if we’re talking about the last time The Voice‘s winning-est coach saw one of his artists take home first prize. Indeed, you’d have to go back to Craig Wayne Boyd’s victory in Season 7 — almost two years ago — for that particular milestone.

That might all change during tonight’s season finale (8/7c on NBC), as Blake’s last remaining artist, Sundance Head, holds the advantage on the iTunes charts following Monday’s performance finale.

Granted, downloads are only one component of the elimination equation — there’s also online, Facebook and Voice app votes to consider — but over the last several seasons, they’ve been a solid predictive tool with regard to NBCs reality singing competition.

Also important in the final equation? Taking a look back over the last few months and seeing how many times each of the finalist cracked the iTunes Top 10, since sales from the entire season (including the Top 10 5x multiplier) factor into the cumulative vote tally.

Based on those numbers, Sundance again holds the edge — with only one competitor likely to be in striking range to close the gap via other voting methods.

First, let’s examine finale-performance sales:

Ranking on iTunes Singles Chart at Close of Voting (Tuesday, Noon ET)

1. Sundance Head (Team Blake), “Darlin’ Don’t Go”

2. Sundance Head (Team Blake), “At Last”

3. Billy Gilman (Team Adam), “Because of Me”

4. Billy Gilman (Team Adam), “My Way”

6. Josh Gallagher (Team Adam), “Pick Any Small Town”

10. Wé McDonald (Team Alicia), “Wishes”

11. Josh Gallagher (Team Adam), “Jack and Diane”

12. Wé McDonald (Team Alicia), “Don’t Rain on My Parade”

Josh and Wé both land one song in the Top 10 — and have one fall just short of the milestone — and even their stronger singles rank behind the potent one-two punches of Sundance and Billy. Look for Adam’s country fella and Alicia’s teen wonder to duke it out for third- and fourth-place finishes when the dust settles.

Obviously, Sundance locking down the Top 2 slots is a powerful message, but Billy finishing at 3 and 4 means he can’t be counted out, either.

Duet Rankings on iTunes (Duets Don’t Count in Voting, But Still an Indication of Popularity)

7. Sundance Head and Blake Shelton, “Treat Her Right”

13. Wé McDonald and Alicia Keys, “Ave Maria”

19. Billy Gilman and Adam Levine, “Bye Bye Love”

29. Josh Gallagher and Adam Levine, “Smooth”

Here, Sundance has a larger edge over Billy — in large part due to Blake’s superior and highly strategic decision to have he and Sundance cover the biggest hit recorded by his artist’s musician dad, Roy Head.

Finally, let’s see who’s got the season-long strength:

Number of Top 10 iTunes Singles for the Finalists Prior to the Finale

Sundance Head, “Love Can Build a Bridge”

Sundance Head, “Me and Jesus”

Sundance Head, “No One”

Billy Gilman, “I Surrender”

Billy Gilman, “Anyway”

Josh Gallagher, “Danny’s Song”

Wé McDonald, “God Bless the Child”

Once more, it’s advantage Sundance, with Billy just one Top 10 single behind, nipping at his heels. Josh and Wé, by comparison, don’t look like they’ll have the season-long strength to close the gap.

Predictions

Winner: Sundance

Runner-Up: Billy

Third Place: Wé (who doesn’t split the country vote or the Team Adam vote in the way Josh must)

Fourth Place: Josh

Who do you think SHOULD and WILL take the Season 11 crown? Vote in our polls below, then sound off in the comments!

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