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Swath of Atlantic still at risk for tropical development into next week

AccuWeather logo AccuWeather 6 days ago Alex Sosnowski

While the window for tropical systems to brew will soon be closing for some zones in the Atlantic, the risk of tropical development is shifting southward into next week.

"Two areas we have been monitoring for tropical or subtropical development just off the East Coast of the United States to east of Bermuda are running out of time," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

© Provided by Accuweather, Inc
This image, taken on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019, shows much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. There was a non-tropical swirl of clouds well east of Bermuda and a weak, broad area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea. (NOAA/GOES-East)

One such area, a non-tropical storm located southeast of New England appears as though it will fail to gather tropical characteristics before being ejected to the cold waters of the North Atlantic later this weekend.

"That storm will still produce tropical-storm-force winds in southeastern New England and waters just off the mid-Atlantic coast," Kottlowski said.

Now, meteorologists are watching areas from the Caribbean to off the coast of Africa over the next week for possible tropical trouble.

Tropical disturbances, or tropical waves, continue to move westward off the coast of Africa every three days or so.

These waves make up the Cabo Verde season, which is named for the disturbances that originate near the Cabo Verde Islands just off the west coast of Africa.

Even though we are past the peak of the Cabo Verde season and the hurricane season in general, these disturbances and other areas can still evolve into tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes over time.

"A somewhat stronger tropical wave is forecast to move off the Africa coast this weekend and move westward," Kottlowski said.

a close up of a map © Provided by Accuweather, Inc

"There is a low chance this becomes an organized system next week," he added.

There remains a broad area of weak counterclockwise winds over the western Caribbean and Central America. This feature is called a gyre.

Occasionally, as tropical waves move into this gyre, they may have a greater chance at becoming a tropical depression or storm, since there is extra moisture in place and there already is a weak circulation to begin with.

"As a result, the area from the western Caribbean to Central America, including adjacent eastern Pacific waters, could give birth to a tropical system or two through next week," Kottlowski said.

"However, the chance of tropical storm formation is probably significantly higher on the Pacific side as opposed to the Caribbean side," Kottlowski added.

a close up of a sign © Provided by Accuweather, Inc

Hurricane season continues until the end of November, and Kottlowski feels there will be another named system or two over the Atlantic Ocean before the season comes to a close.

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