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Tropical downpours loom for Texas, Louisiana

AccuWeather logo AccuWeather 6/25/2022

AccuWeather meteorologists are putting portions of the Gulf Coast on alert for the possibility of a tropical system and flooding rainfall in just a few days.

The tropical season in the basin officially started on June 1, and the first named storm, Tropical Storm Alex formed just five days later, contributing to drenching rainfall across Florida. Before the end of the month, the U.S. could again be threatened by a tropical system.

"Conditions for tropical development across the northwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico look favorable for the final days of June," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

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Across that area, Douty further explained that light wind shear, or disruptive winds in the atmosphere, combined with above-normal water temperatures, will all contribute to the tropical development being possible, on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Should the environment stay favorable for long enough, it's not out of the question that wind speeds could increase enough for the formation of a tropical depressions, or perhaps a tropical storm.

With this tropical threat, residents along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts should all be on alert for the potential of a quick-forming system.

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Whether a tropical feature is able to organize or not, heavy rain is expected to target much of the Gulf Coast next week.

"An influx of tropical moisture, streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico will be running into a stalled front across the southern U.S. These opposite forces will squeeze out the moisture in between, leading to downpours from Texas to the Florida Panhandle," explained Douty.

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This pattern is likely to persist for a few days, allowing for the same areas to hit with more than one or two rounds of heavy rain. The rainfall could help portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast that are currently experiencing drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

While portions of Texas and Louisiana could really use the rain, it's possible that the rainfall may come too quickly for the dry ground to absorb, resulting in flash flooding. Motorists should be cautious of ponding on the roadways and reduced visibility which could lead to travel delays.

Outside of this zone, across parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, downpours are also expected; because this area has experienced closer-to-normal rainfall over the past several months, making flash flooding less likely.

Forecasters are also keeping an eye on a tropical feature expected to push into the southeastern Caribbean in the coming week as well. This tropical system has the potential to develop in a similar time frame as the tropical threat near Texas. If both were to strengthen enough to become a tropical storm, they could be fighting for which would take the next name on this year's hurricane list, Bonnie.

AccuWeather's team of tropical weather meteorologists, headed by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, expects an above-average season and above-average direct impacts on the U.S. for 2022. The team remains concerned that there could be one or more significant impacts on Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the southeastern U.S. mainland this season.

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