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川普已通知鮑威爾接掌聯準會

中國廣播公司 標誌 中國廣播公司 2017/11/1
川普已通知鮑威爾接掌聯準會 © 中國廣播公司 川普已通知鮑威爾接掌聯準會

消息靈通人士透露,白宮已經通知現任聯準會理事鮑威爾,川普將任命他接替葉倫,出任聯準會主席。

華爾街日報報導,川普昨天與鮑威爾談過,事實上,上個星期六,他就已經敲定了這樁人事案,川普應該會在星期五啟程前往亞洲前宣佈。

鮑威爾與現任聯準會主席葉倫以及聯準會都拒絕回應報導。葉倫的第一個任期,明年二月屆滿。川普競選期間就放話說要換掉她,就任之後,又不只一次稱讚她表現不錯。不過上個禮拜他又說心中已經有理想的替代人選。

今年三月以三十位經濟學家為對象的調查顯示,鮑威爾是鴿派,彭博社評量FED各理事金融政策立場的量表,給他的評語是中立。2012年,聯準會討論是否要推出第三波量化時,他曾提出質疑,不過最後還是投了贊成票。

上個月,他在一項演說中表示,只要美國經濟發展大致符合預期,貨幣政策常態化就會繼續下去。

Mr. Powell would likely continue the Fed's current cautious approach to reversing the central bank's crisis-era stimulus policies as the economy expands.

That would mean gradually raising short-term interest rates in quarter-percentage-point steps through 2020 while slowly shrinking the Fed's $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities it purchased to lower long-term rates.

"The economy is as close to our assigned goals as it has been for many years," Mr. Powell said in June. If it continues growing as expected, "I would view it as appropriate to continue to gradually raise rates."

Fed officials began raising their benchmark federal-funds rate in December 2015 after holding it near zero for seven years following the financial crisis. They voted in June to lift rates to a range between 1% and 1.25% and in October started the process of slowly shrinking its portfolio of bonds purchased during and after the financial crisis to stimulate the economy.

Officials expect one more rate increase this year. But they indicated in September such increases are likely to end at a lower point than they had previously projected -- at a longer-run level of around 2.75%, considerably lower than where officials have stopped raising rates in the past.

Mr. Trump told The Wall Street Journal in July, "I'd like to see rates stay low."

The Fed on Wednesday left short-term interest rates unchanged, but signaled it would consider lifting them before year's end amid signs the economy is gaining momentum.

During his five years at the Fed, Mr. Powell has been a reliable ally of Ms. Yellen. He has never dissented on a Fed monetary or regulatory policy vote and in speeches hasn't deviated far from the board's consensus.

Where he could lead a shift is on regulatory policy. He has advocated loosening some of the financial rules adopted by the Fed and other agencies since the crisis, a position that meshes with Mr. Trump's deregulatory agenda.

Mr. Powell has suggested softening the Volcker rule barring banks from using their own money to make risky bets and easing some bank stress tests. He also has endorsed reviewing some of the supervisory duties imposed on banks' boards of directors to prevent them from being burdened with "an ever-increasing checklist."

"More regulation is not the best answer to every problem," Mr. Powell said in a speech in early October.

"To some extent he offers Trump the best of both worlds. You get broadly speaking continuity of Yellen's careful and relatively dovish approach to monetary policy but with somebody who is a card-carrying Republican and who is significantly more inclined to revisit some of the postcrisis regulations," said Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI and a former New York Fed official.

Karen Petrou, managing partner of the financial-services consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics, said Mr. Powell's recent remarks on regulation "were certainly much more flexible than [Ms. Yellen] has been."

Mr. Powell, a lawyer, would be the first Fed leader in three decades without a Ph.D. in economics. Before joining the Fed board, Mr. Powell worked as an investment banker in New York City, as Treasury undersecretary for financial institutions in the George H.W. Bush administration, as a partner at the Carlyle Group and as a scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

That background could serve him well, said Aaron Klein, an economic studies fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of the Center on Regulation and Markets.

"The Federal Reserve's mandate has grown significantly since the

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