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Best NFL prop bets for every Week 5 game: Aaron Jones gashes Giants, Stefon Diggs goes long, Lamar Jackson & Travis Kelce produce prime-time TDs

Sporting News 2022-10-09 Sloan Piva
© Provided by Sporting News

Can you believe Week 5 of the NFL season is already upon us? Time sure flies when you're having fun! We've been having a blast picking the best player and team props every week, bringing in more and more money each Thursday.

The same-game parlay and player prop betting markets have become wildly popular, and it's easy to see why. Rarely do we see "bad beats" in the props section. Usually, if you do your research and follow the trends (while also avoiding injury), you can come out with more winners than losers. It's like getting extra credit in school just for doing your homework. Okay, sorry, that was a bit nerdy. 

But what can we say — we're football nerds! Every Thursday, we scour Caesars Sportsbook to pinpoint one potentially profitable prop for each NFL game for the upcoming week. It could be a player or team prop that we find the most interesting, most lucrative, or both. These prop wagers can involve offense, defense, special teams, or general scoring, but they always stand out as the most intriguing and yield the most value to bettors.

Let’s check out our favorite Week 5 props for every game and make some money in what should be another fun week of NFL action.

MORE WEEK 5 NFL BETTING: Odds, lines, spreads | Best bets

NFL Betting: Best prop bets from every Week 5 game

All prop bets are from Caesars Sportsbook/William Hill

Broncos vs. Colts: Russell Wilson OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+116)

Hidden under the tumultuous start of Nathaniel Hackett's head coaching career is that Russell Wilson has played pretty well. Of course, the touchdown production hasn't been particularly good, but the yards are decent and some positive scoring regression is on the horizon. Indy is banged up on defense, most notably missing Shaquille Leonard (concussion) and Jonathan Taylor (turf toe, ankle), who won't be there to control the clock for the Colts. Let's bet on Russ cooking up a couple of TDs at home in the Mile High atmosphere. 

Packers vs. Giants: Aaron Jones OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-121)

The Giants and Packers have two things in common: strong running games and trouble containing the run. Saquon Barkley, currently the NFL's rushing leader, has a relatively high rushing total of 77.5 here (-117 for the OVER), and because I don't believe in the Giants in this game, I'm going with the best running back on the best team. Jones has been explosive, a perfect tandem mate for power-runner AJ Dillon. In both of Green Bay's games against inferior offenses (New England, Chicago), Jones finished with over 110 ground yards. Well, the Giants are an inferior offense — the most deceiving 3-1 team perhaps ever — and Daniel Jones is banged up. The G-men have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season, so get ready for a Cheese feast in London!

Seahawks at Saints: DK Metcalf OVER 5.5 receptions (+102)

Geno Smith has been dealing for Seattle this season, proving Pete Carroll right for letting him play more aggressively. He's quite literally letting Geno cook, which is hilarious after so many years of Russell Wilson being kept on a leash with the Seahawks. The biggest benefactors to Smith's breakout campaign, of course, are Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In this game, I expect we will see Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore covering Lockett much more than Metcalf. I like DK's receiving yards OVER of 64.5 (-125), but I love his receptions total with plus odds. 

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Mike Evans to score a TD (+114)

Everything in Tom Brady's life is in flux right now — except his most dependable receiver left, Mr. Michael Lynn Evans. The tall, sure-handed veteran grabbed eight-of-10 targets for 103 yards and two TDs last weekend against Kansas City, and he should be able to feast on a perennially poor Falcons secondary. Fellow veteran receiver Chris Godwin is still a bit slowed, and Brady needs to make up ground in the MVP conversation we all know he secretly cares about more than he should. More plus odds! 

Dolphins at Chiefs: Chase Edmonds to score a TD (+215)

The yardage bar keeps getting lowered for Edmonds, who has underwhelmed (to say the least) in his first year with the 'Phins. Caesars lists his yardage over/under at 27.5, which would have seemed preposterous in the preseason after the former Cardinal got the untaxed bag in South Beach. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel favors Raheem Mostert between the 20s, but Edmonds has given his truthers glimpses of hope as of late. He has found paydirt three times in the past two weeks, and now he faces a Jets D that has surrendered five rushing TDs through four games. Chase that money!

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Jaguars vs. Texans: Christian Kirk OVER 5.5 receptions (-103)

Trevor Lawrence is like a new man under new Jags head coach Doug Pederson, and Christian Kirk has profited the most. The veteran receiver has hauled in six catches in three-of-four games this season, and he's averaging nine targets per game! He only brought in two-of-nine looks last week in the loss to Philly, but in his defense, that defense yields the lowest completion percentage in the NFL (56.4 percent) and the game was played in a windy, rainy mess. Kirk will eat again this weekend. 

Bears at Vikings: Cole Kmet to score a TD (+370)

Let's get weird. This is our lottery ticket of the week! Kmet has been the most disappointing breakout TE pick in recent memory, but he's not dead yet. Over the past two weeks, he caught five-of-six targets for 56 yards, and he was on the field for a combined 95 percent of offensive snaps. Minnesota has allowed 237 receiving yards and a TD to tight ends this season despite facing two teams that barely utilize the position (Packers, Saints). So, you're telling me there's a chance!? 

Bills vs. Steelers: Stefon Diggs longest reception OVER 24.5 yards (-123)

I recently asked a co-worker for a food equivalent to Brian Daboll going from Josh Allen in Buffalo to Daniel Jones in New York. Within seconds, we both typed "Filet Mignon to Steak-umms." That's a mind-meld moment, folks. Well, Allen and Diggs have a mind-meld, too, and Gabe Davis (ankle) doesn't have all the gears operating at normal speed. Diggs is a top-five receiver with the best QB in the NFL going up against a cornerback corps that takes a lot of chances and has already surrendered 1,000 air yards this season. Expect at least one completion of 26-plus yards from Diggs this weekend.

Commanders vs. Titans: Carson Wentz OVER 233.5 passing yards (-103) or OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+146)

Take your pick, because I love both of these props. Wentz dominated the first two weeks in comeback mode against mediocre defenses before getting decimated in Weeks 3 and 4 by Philly and Dallas. Well, the Titans' secondary can only dream of being as good as the Eagles' and Cowboys' secondaries, and Wentz will be slinging like a madman this weekend. Even without rookie receiver Jahan Dotson (hamstring), I expect multiple passing TDs and at least 250 air yards. Tennessee has allowed the second-most passing TDs (10) and the fifth-most passing yards (274 per game). 

Lions at Patriots: Jamaal Williams to score a TD (-120)

The Lions will likely be without lead back D'Andre Swift (shoulder) until after the team's Week 6 bye, but Jamaal Williams has been exemplary in his place. Hell, he was outstanding even when Swift was playing! Williams has six TDs on top of his 276 rushing yards this season, and now he faces a Patriots D that has actually been quite susceptible to the run. New England has allowed 135.8 rushing yards per game, and Bill Belichick's defense could be on the field plenty with Mac Jones (ankle) and Brian Hoyer (concussion) both dinged up. I'd like this better if it was a yardage prop, but as of this writing, only the TD prop is listed. Keep your eyes peeled for a rushing OVER of anything in the 70-yard range or below. 

Chargers at Browns: Austin Ekeler to score a TD (-150) 

Who cares about the juice? This is a layup prop. Ekeler came out of his shell last week, exploding for two TDs against the Texans. Now, he gets a Browns squad without Myles Garrett (shoulder) that has allowed five TDs to RBs through four games (four on the ground, one through the air). I don't mind chipping a little profit to the books if I'm betting on a sure thing (sounds like a line from "Casino" or something). 

Panthers vs. 49ers: D.J. Moore OVER 4.5 receptions (+102)

Panthers coach Matt Rhule made a bizarre statement last week that D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson could help Baker Mayfield by getting open more, which clearly bewildered Moore when confronted by reporters about it. Well, maybe some kind of weird psychological effect took hold because Mayfield proceeded to find Moore six times for 50 receiving yards against Arizona over the weekend. Moore is Carolina's second-best player behind Christian McCaffrey, and the Panthers won't win if he's not heavily involved. Feed him the ball and feed us this +102 victory. Worried about the Niners D? They allowed Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee to combine for 24 catches and 195 yards on Monday. Fear not. 

Eagles at Cardinals: Eagles alternate OVER 29 points (+110)

Not many things are as sure a thing in the NFL as Jalen Hurts and these Eagles. He looks like an MVP candidate, and Philly looks like a bona fide Super Bowl contender. Now they get to square off with the Cardinals, who have surrendered 25.7 points per game this season. Hurts and the Eagles are 9-1 in the last 10 games in which they have posted 24 or more points. They've also scored 28.75 points per game this season, and Kyler Murray and the desert birds might stay in this one for a while. Let the points explosion boom!

Cowboys at Rams: Cowboys alternate line -2.5 (+227)

I have the Cowboys winning this game straight up. They've been great with Cooper Rush under center, and their defense might be the best in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, have looked lost. Take away Cooper Kupp and the Rams might be a sub-.500 team at this rate. Dallas getting 5.5 points in this game is laughable. Take the second lotto pick of the week and bet on the big upset for a sweet payout. 

Ravens vs. Bengals: Lamar Jackson to score a TD (+160)

Now, this isn't to "pass a touchdown" but rather to "score a touchdown," so L-Jax actually has to break the plane himself. But aren't we used to seeing the man do that in prime-time games, especially against divisional foes? He has seven career rushing scores in evening games, and he's already scored two TDs on the ground this season. It may seem volatile, but you're getting paid +160 for accepting the volatility. Bet on the studs in prime-time games. 

Chiefs vs. Raiders: Travis Kelce to score two or more TDs (+400)

We'll finish our week off with a massive lotto ticket, but one that's very clearly in the realm of possibilities at Arrowhead in a post-Tyreek Hill offense. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are still the class of the AFC, and Kelce's role as the elite QB's No. 1 target has never been more secure. The Raiders have surrendered seven TD passes through four weeks, two of which have gone to tight ends. Kelce always gets up in prime-time games, especially against Vegas tight end Darren Waller. Don't play these sorts of bets if you're the conservative type, but if you want to potentially close out the week with a $100 win on a $20 investment, take a crack! 

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