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French election: Le Pen may be on verge of shock win with horror undecided stat for Macron

Daily Express logo Daily Express 16/04/2022 David Maddox – Sunday Express Political Editor EXCLUSIVE

With just a week to go, the survey of French voters by the Democracy Institute has revealed that Emmanuel Macron has just a two point lead over his rightwing rival with 43 percent to 41 percent. However, crucially, the poll shows that 16 percent of French voters are undecided and could opt either way.

More worrying for Macron is that the votes of third place far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon have split evently between the two finalists with 28 percent going to Macron and 26 percent going to Le Pen.

When the two faced off in 2017 Macron won almost all the far left votes.

But according to the survey of 1,050 French voters, Macron is losing support over the cost of living crisis which Le Pen outpolls him in and is the top issue of concern for French voters on 54 per cent.

Le Pen is gaining support among low income voters with a mere 38 percent backing Macron.

French elections © Getty French elections

Meanwhile, Macron is relying on young voters and pensioners to get him over the line with a majority of 18- to 24-year-olds and over 65s.

But the age groups between 25 and 64 favour Le Pen who has promised to stop Macron's plans to raise the age of retirement from 62 to 65.

Macron is also unable to lean on his record as a path for victory with 47 percent compared to 43 percent disapproving of his handling of the Ukraine crisis; 59 percent disapproving of his economic record; 55 percent disapproving of his overall record as President and 50 percent saying he is not a statesman.

Concerningly for the international community, there appears to be support for Le Pen's policy of leaving Nato by 45 percent to 42 percent.

There is also scepticism over the war in Ukraine with 51 percent believing sanctions hurt France more than Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia is only the third biggest threat for French voters on 20 percent behind China on 22 percent and terrorism on 33 percent.

Patrick Basham, director of the Democracy Institute, said: "On Easter Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron should pray next week is uneventful. If it is, he will be reelected. Marine Le Pen should pray for someone or something to disrupt the political week. If that happens, she probably wins the election."

Vote for President

Q "Which presidential candidate will you vote for in this year's election?"

  • Macron = 43%

  • Le Pen = 41%

  • Undecided = 16%

Macron's Vote by Gender

  • Men = 47%

  • Women = 55%

Macron's Vote by Age

  • 18-24 = 53%

  • 25-34 = 44%

  • 35-49 = 44%

  • 50-64 = 47%

  • 65+ = 63%

Macron's Vote by Income

  • Low = 38%

  • Middle = 52%

  • High = 57%

Macron's Vote by Geographic Area

  • Rural = 35%

  • Small town = 49%

  • Urban = 56%

Enthusiasm Gap

Q "Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of presidential candidate?"

  • Macron voters = 53%

  • Le Pen voters = 64%

Macron Voters: Positive or Negative Vote

Q. "Are you voting for Macron or against Le Pen?"

  • For = 48%

  • Against = 52%

Le Pen Voters: Positive or Negative Vote

Q. "Are you voting for Le Pen or against Macron?"

  • For = 61%

  • Against = 39%

Mélenchon Voters' 2nd Round Choice

  • Macron = 28%

  • Le Pen = 26%

  • Undecided = 14%

Direction of Country

Q "Is France currently heading in the right or wrong direction as a country?"

  • Right = 38%

  • Wrong = 62%

Most Important Issue & Favoured Party

Q "What issue is most important to you, and which candidate do you favour on this issue?"

  • Inflation = 54% [Le Pen favoured by 15 points]

  • Health care = 11% [Macron +12]

  • Crime = 10% [Le Pen +17]

  • Jobs = 9% [Le Pen +7]

  • Immigration = 9% [Le Pen +11]

  • Ukraine = 7% [Macron +4]

Macron's Ratings

Q "Do you approve or disapprove of President Macron's overall performance?"

  • Approve = 38%

  • Disapprove = 55%

Q "Do you approve of President Macron's overall handling of the economy?"

  • Yes = 37%

  • No = 59%

Q "Do you approve of President Macron's overall handling of the Ukraine crisis?"

  • Yes = 43%

  • No = 47%

Q "Is President Macron a statesman?"

  • Yes = 42%

  • No = 50%

Le Pen's Ratings

Q "Do you approve or disapprove of Marine Le Pen's overall performance?"

  • Approve = 37%

  • Disapprove = 56%

Q "Is Marine Le Pen too pro-Russia in her statements and positions?"

  • Yes = 43%

  • No = 45%

Foreign Policy

Q "Which country is hurt more by the economic sanctions imposed upon Russia?"

  • France = 51%

  • Russia = 41%

Q "Should France leave NATO?"

  • Yes = 45%

  • No = 42%

Q "Which country, actor, or behavior poses the greatest threat to France?"

  • Terrorism = 33%

  • China = 22%

  • Russia = 20%

  • Migration = 13%

  • Other = 12%

Poll Methodology

The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,050 registered French voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute's polling unit from April 14th to April 15th 2022. The projected national turnout among registered voters is 72 percent. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and cell phone-only households. This national poll has a margin of error of (+/-) 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.

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