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Coup possible in Russia as Putin’s inner circle believe he has lost the war, expert claims

Extra.ie logo Extra.ie 19/05/2022 Chloe OKeeffe

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s top security officials think the war in Ukraine is ‘lost,’ an analyst in Moscow says.

The chances of Putin launching a nuclear strike are decreasing as it is a high possibility that people would refuse to carry out the order.

Christo Grozev, an expert and investigative journalist suggests that Putin is losing his grip on power.

A leading expert from Moscow has said that leading officials for Vladimir Putin believe the war is ‘lost.’ Pic: ALESSANDRO GUERRA/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock © Provided by Extra.ie A leading expert from Moscow has said that leading officials for Vladimir Putin believe the war is ‘lost.’ Pic: ALESSANDRO GUERRA/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Grozev says that leading officials are unlikely to follow Putin’s commands to launch nukes due to questions whether he will still be in power in three months time.

Grozev told Radio Liberty: ‘I think that it is the informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost.’

The journalist said that Putin’s inner circle understand that their president would need a full mass mobilisation in order to win the war. Journalist Christo Grozev  This would cause a ‘social explosion’ in Russia.

Minister for Defence Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both be required to authorize the strike. Pic: SERGEI ILNITSKY/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock © Provided by Extra.ie Minister for Defence Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both be required to authorize the strike. Pic: SERGEI ILNITSKY/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Lead Russia investigator for investigative journalist group Bellingcat, said one or more of the five hands needed to launch Russian nukes could end up disobeying Putin’s orders.

Grozev added: ‘This refusal will be the trigger, most likely, a coup d’état, because after the refusal to comply with the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly.’ Grozev said that if Putin does give an order to use nuclear weapons, he needs to be sure that everyone along the chain will ‘carry out this order.’

One person not complying should Putin give the order would be a signal or ‘insubordination’ which could lead to the ‘death of Putin,’ says Grozev.

Vladimir Putin would need to be 100% certain that everyone would obey if he gave the order, the journalist stated. Pic: EyePress News/REX/Shutterstock © Provided by Extra.ie Vladimir Putin would need to be 100% certain that everyone would obey if he gave the order, the journalist stated. Pic: EyePress News/REX/Shutterstock

‘So until he is sure that everyone will comply, he will not give this order.’

Minister for Defence Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both be required to authorize the strike.

Throughout the war the Russian president has been a point of being seen in public with an official carrying the nuclear briefcase.

Minister for Defence Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both be required to authorize the strike. Pic: SERGEI ILNITSKY/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock © Provided by Extra.ie Minister for Defence Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both be required to authorize the strike. Pic: SERGEI ILNITSKY/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Defence ministry flights for Russia’s elite to a supposed control bunker near Ufa, have reduced since earlier in the war.

Senior figures from the FSB security agency and the GRU military intelligence organisation are preparing for life after Putin, the investigative journalist said.

Grozev believes that many top figures are preparing for life after Putin. Pic: Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock © Provided by Extra.ie Grozev believes that many top figures are preparing for life after Putin. Pic: Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

The ‘FSB elite’ know that the situation is due to get out of hand, according to Grozev. ‘These are those parts of the security forces who know the dangers of the regime, and they themselves are now preparing their future.’

Many are looking for an opportunity to take their families out of their homeland, and all of them are looking for ways to transfer the accumulated money into dollars and euros. Many of this money is considered corruption money.

Grozev added that it is already ‘kind of betrayal by these people because they do not follow the ideological orders of the Kremlin.’

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