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VP has a lot of catching up to do

The Manila Times logo The Manila Times 11/10/2021 Bienvenido C. Gonzalez

Having failed to unify all the oppositionists and now possibly facing a five (or six) corner presidential election, Vice President Maria Leonor "Leni" Robredo would have a lot of catching up to do based on the analysis of the first and second choices of the recent Pulse Asia reported last 29th of September. The following was the heads up I gave her previously:

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A second survey with first and second choices but this time limited only to these five plus possibly Sara Duterte-Carpio will certainly give us a better basis for predicting their respective starting percentages of votes. That, however, can only come by the end of November at the earliest as nothing gets set in granite until after November 15 when all political posturing has to end, like it or not.

Given her disappointment at not being able to unify the different politicians who want to be president, she has immediately pivoted to unifying people from all social classes instead. At first glance, this looks like she is jumping from the frying pan into the fire. What kind of logic could have dictated this bold move?

I had to dig deep into my past studies to find any sense in this most audacious move. And the following is what I saw among my numerous analyses.

Once upon a time in the recent past, Veep Leni did the impossible according to my analysis of the Social Weather Station (SWS) in three quarterly vice-presidential approval rating report. I am referring to a nine-month period in 2017 from March to September when three quarterly surveys were conducted by SWS with these final results on her own satisfaction rating.

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A win is possible!

Look at the dramatic increases from March 2017 to September 2017. Veep Leni's scores improved for the entire country, winning in all regions, and in both urban and rural areas, and in all income groupings. She took the Philippines by storm without campaigning, without an organization and without any concerted effort. For the 2022 May election, all she has to do is replicate the why and the how.

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Please note that the numbers presented above are from my analysis of the results of the said survey. These will not be found in their site.

I have long developed this algorithm for analyzing Undecided Votes and for tracking their conversion into either Satisfaction or Dissatisfaction answers. This shows that it is not enough that you increase those who are currently satisfied with you but of equal importance is to decrease those who are currently dissatisfied with you. Politics is indeed addition!

I have analyzed these numbers as no one has done before. I sincerely believe that Veep Leni is on to something good, in fact, something exceptionally good. Now, someone from her side has to find out what caused these to behave as they did. Veep Leni and her team should find out and be able to replicate and leverage those causal events to their advantage. Here is wishing you the best of luck!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

The author, Bienvenido C. Gonzalez is a SALN expert and retired international financial analyst with an alphabet soup after his name (MBM, CPA, BSC, BA, UNDP Fellow) who had been into business modeling and algorithms since his Asian Development Bank staff consultancies from 1984 to 1993. In addition, he is into Big Data, Analytics and Forensics. Since 2018, he has earned 9 course certificates from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (4), University of California San Diego (1), Rice University (2), Price Waterhouse Cooper (1) and McMaster University (1) as part of his lifelong learning interests.

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