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Survey says the next recession could begin in 2020

Bloomberg logoBloomberg 5/22/2018 Alex Tanzi

Video by CNBC

Mark your calendar. The next U.S. recession will begin in 2020, a survey says.

More than half of the 105 real estate experts and economists in the quarterly survey by housing data provider Zillow and research firm Pulsenomics point to “monetary policy as the likeliest cause.”

Fed officials have signaled at least three rate increases this year. A year ago, a geopolitical crisis was seen as the most likely cause of the next recession by survey panelists.

In the meantime, the housing market is expected to see stronger price appreciation than forecast a year ago, with home values rising 5.5 percent to a median of $220,800 in 2018, according to Zillow and Pulsenomics. Last year, forecasts called for a 3.7 percent gain.

A separate Fannie Mae survey forecasts home prices will rise 3.9 percent over the next 12 months.

Related gallery: Most and least recession-proof states (provided by GoBankingRates)

Tennessee-iStock-584791038: It's been about nine years since the U.S. climbed out of the Great Recession, but many Americans are still recovering from the economic downturn. And, some states haven’t bounced back as quickly as others.So what would happen if the U.S. economy were to sink into another recession anytime soon? Would some states be hit harder than others? To find out, GOBankingRates looked at various factors in every state to determine how prepared each is to weather the next economic crisis. Click through to find out if your state is prepared for the next recession.
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