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OHSU projects COVID-19 herd immunity by mid-December

KPTV Portland logo KPTV Portland 10/19/2021
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PORTLAND, Ore. (KPTV) - In a new COVID-19 forecast, OHSU projects we should reach herd immunity in Oregon by mid-December.

That OHSU forecast projects COVID hospitalizations will continue to decline and it shows about 22% of Oregonians are still vulnerable to infection.

Peter Graven, the director of the OHSU Office of Advanced Analytics said Oregon reached a form of herd immunity in June, but the Delta variant changed the math and required a higher threshold. He said we now need to reach 85 percent either through vaccination or infection.

He said a lot of people have become infected over the past three months and it's become harder for the virus to find susceptible people.

Graven said he’s also preparing for the possibility of another variant.

“There will be a day where some variant will probably you know be something that kind of beats previous immunity,” Graven said. “Then again we'll hope that we have boosters and what not that will help lessen the load of that.”

Graven said it's unlikely we'll see any variants that are able to transmit faster than the Delta variant.


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