$10-a-barrel oil price plunge should bring relief at gas pump

© Carline Jean/South Florida Sun-Sentinel/TNS What a difference a year makes: Gas prices are projected to fall over the coming weeks thanks to renewed recession fears, analysts say. Last year at this time, prices were skyrocketing amid supply concerns sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What’s bad for the economy is sometimes good for motorists.

High-profile bank failures sent stock market and crude oil prices plunging last week amid renewed concerns that a global recession could be taking shape.

U.S. crude oil prices dropped about 13% over the past week, from $74.43 a barrel on March 14 to $64.54 in early morning trading on Monday. By mid-afternoon Monday, the price was hovering around $66.15.

Oil prices fell 17% over the past two weeks and oil futures were trading on Monday at their lowest prices since December 2021.

That’s a deep enough slide to put downward pressure on gas prices following a 15-cent average per-gallon hike in Florida last week, travel club AAA said in its weekly Gas Price Brief.

On Monday, a gallon of unleaded regular averaged $3.45 a gallon in Florida and $3.44 nationwide, AAA statistics showed.

“There were significant losses in the oil market last week, which should enable gas prices to move lower again,” said AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins. “The failure of two U.S. banks raised concerns of a global recession that could eventually hamper fuel demand.”

As oil prices fell last week, gas prices likely increased because of annual refinery maintenance and high springtime demand, AAA said. But gasoline futures — which reflects what traders believe gas will be selling for in the weeks to come — dropped 24 cents over the past two weeks.

That’s an indicator “that pump prices should move lower,” unless traders suddenly turn optimistic about the economy again, Jenkins said.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the price-comparison website GasBuddy.com, warned that the reprieve could be short-lived. Or not.

“Should the outlook for the banking sector improve, we could again see gasoline prices race higher, while continued or additional distress could raise the possibility of a broader economic slowdown, keeping gasoline prices in check,” De Haan said in his weekly blog. “Overall, there are a lot of possibilities.”

Either way, motorists are paying less for gas right now compared to a year ago, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked fears of global oil shortages. Prices climbed rapidly after the invasion began in February, hitting $4.18 this time last year, then hitting a record high of $4.89 by June 13.

South Florida’s average per-gallon prices on Monday ranged from $3.44 in Miami-Dade County to $3.49 in Broward County and $3.63 in Palm Beach County.

But as always, bargain hunters could find much lower prices if they knew where to look.

According to GasBuddy’s gas price map, the lowest retail price in Broward was $2.99 at a Mobil station at 16961 Miramar Parkway in Miramar. More commonly, a number of stations throughout the county were selling at $3.17.

Two stations in Lake Park were offering Palm Beach County’s lowest price without a wholesale club membership — $3.13 at Marathon on 980 Northlake Blvd. and at Sunoco at 774 Northlake Blvd.

Miami-Dade’s best bargain — $3.09 — could be found at Sunoco at 3196 NW 54th St., west of Brownsville.

Ron Hurtibise covers business and consumer issues for the South Florida Sun Sentinel. He can be reached by phone at 954-356-4071, on Twitter @ronhurtibise or by email at rhurtibise@sunsentinel.com.

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