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Why Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Zacks.com logo Zacks.com 10/19/2020

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Brokerage industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This insurance and risk-management company has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 17.86%.

For the last reported quarter, Arthur J. Gallagher came out with earnings of $0.94 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.72 per share, representing a surprise of 30.56%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.74 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.83 per share, delivering a surprise of 5.17%.

Price and EPS Surprise

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With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Arthur J. Gallagher. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Arthur J. Gallagher currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.01%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on October 29, 2020.

Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

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