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2021 Critics Choice Awards predictions: Our official winner odds for 20 film categories

Gold Derby logo Gold Derby 3/5/2021 Daniel Montgomery
a close up of a lamp © Critics Choice Awards

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The Critics Choice Awards will be handed out on Sunday night, March 7, two days after the start of voting for Oscar nominations, so they have an opportunity to influence this year’s awards even more than usual. So who will win? Scroll down for our complete predictions in all 20 film categories, listed in order of our racetrack odds with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

SEE2021 Critics Choice TV predictions: Winner odds in 16 television categories

Our odds have been calculated by combining the predictions of Gold Derby users. They include Expert journalists from major media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Critics Choice film winners, and the All-Star Top 24 who had the best prediction scores when you combine the last two years’ results.

These awards are handed out by the Critics Choice Association that comprises hundreds of print, online, and broadcast journalists, and their picks often closely match the Oscars. Last year the 10 Critics Choice nominees for Best Picture included all nine of the eventual Oscar contenders: “Ford v Ferrari,” “The Irishman,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Joker,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “1917,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “Parasite.” However, Critics Choice went with “Once Upon a Time” as their winner, while the motion picture academy ultimately voted for “Parasite.”

So what will the critics choose this year, and will they continue winning awards throughout the season?

SEEAndra Day is going nowhere but up in our Critics Choice Awards odds — will she win (or tie)?

BEST PICTURE

Nomadland” — 6/1

The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 15/2

Minari” — 15/2

“Promising Young Woman” — 17/2

“One Night in Miami” — 9/1

“Mank” — 9/1

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 10/1

“Sound of Metal” — 11/1

“Da 5 Bloods” — 12/1

“News of the World” — 14/1

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland” — 9/2

David Fincher, “Mank” — 6/1

Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” — 6/1

Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman” — 6/1

Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 13/2

Regina King, “One Night in Miami” — 13/2

Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods” — 7/1

BEST ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” — 5/1

Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 11/2

Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” — 11/2

Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” — 6/1

Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” — 13/2

Zendaya, “Malcolm and Marie” — 7/1

Sidney Flanigan, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 7/1

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 39/10

Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” — 11/2

Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” — 13/2

Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods” — 15/2

Steven Yeun, “Minari” — 8/1

Gary Oldman, “Mank” — 9/1

Ben Affleck, “The Way Back” — 10/1

Tom Hanks, “News of the World” — 10/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” — 71/20

Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” — 9/2

Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy” — 5/1

Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” — 11/2

Olivia Colman, “The Father” — 6/1

Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman” — 15/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” — 10/3

Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” — 9/2

Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 5/1

Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” — 5/1

Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods” — 13/2

Bill Murray, “On the Rocks” — 15/2

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 7/2

“Promising Young Woman” — 39/10

“Minari” — 5/1

“Mank” — 6/1

“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 13/2

“Sound of Metal” — 7/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“Nomadland” — 10/3

“One Night in Miami” — 4/1

“The Father” — 5/1

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 11/2

“First Cow” — 13/2

“News of the World” — 7/1

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE

“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 7/2

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 9/2

“Minari” — 9/2

“One Night in Miami” — 11/2

“Da 5 Bloods” — 13/2

“Judas and the Black Messiah” — 7/1

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Helena Zengel, “News of the World” — 69/20

Alan Kim, “Minari” — 4/1

Talia Ryder, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 5/1

Ibrahima Gueye, “The Life Ahead” — 6/1

Caoilinn Springall, “The Midnight Sky” — 13/2

Ryder Allen, “Palmer” — 7/1

BEST COMEDY FILM

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” — 17/5

“Palm Springs” — 39/10

“The Forty-Year-Old Version” — 5/1

“On the Rocks” — 11/2

“The Prom” — 7/1

“The King of Staten Island” — 7/1

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Minari” — 82/25

“Another Round” — 4/1

“The Life Ahead” — 5/1

“La Llorona” — 6/1

“Collective” — 13/2

“Two of Us” — 7/1

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Nomadland” — 9/2

“Mank” — 11/2

“News of the World” — 6/1

“Tenet” — 6/1

“Minari” — 13/2

“First Cow” — 7/1

“Da 5 Bloods” — 7/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Mank” — 18/5

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 4/1

“Emma” — 9/2

“Promising Young Woman” — 6/1

“Mulan” — 13/2

“The Personal History of David Copperfield” — 13/2

BEST EDITING

“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 7/2

“Nomadland” — 4/1

“Tenet” — 11/2

“Sound of Metal” — 11/2

“The Father” — 13/2

“Mank” — 13/2

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 17/5

“Hillbilly Elegy” — 9/2

“Mank” — 5/1

“Promising Young Woman” — 11/2

“The United States vs. Billie Holiday” — 13/2

“Emma” — 7/1

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

“Mank” — 82/25

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 9/2

“Emma” — 5/1

“Tenet” — 11/2

“The Personal History of David Copperfield” — 13/2

“News of the World” — 13/2

BEST SCORE

“Soul” — 16/5

“Mank” — 9/2

“Tenet” — 11/2

“News of the World” — 6/1

“Minari” — 6/1

“The Midnight Sky” — 7/1

BEST SONG

“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” — 10/3

“Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead” — 9/2

“Tigress and Tweed: from “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” — 5/1

“Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah” — 11/2

“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest” — 6/1

“Everybody Cries” from “The Outpost” — 15/2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Tenet” — 9/2

“The Midnight Sky” — 6/1

“The Invisible Man” — 6/1

“Wonder Woman 1984” — 13/2

“Mank” — 13/2

“Greyhound” — 13/2

“Mulan” — 7/1

PREDICTthe 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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