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Biden holds sizable lead over Trump in Arizona: Poll

Washington Examiner logo Washington Examiner 5/19/2020 David M. Drucker
Joe Biden, Donald Trump are posing for a picture © Provided by Washington Examiner

Joe Biden is leading President Trump in Arizona 50% to 43%, according to a new survey from a Republican pollster.

The poll from OH Predictive Insights, released Tuesday, was conducted on the heels of Trump's visit to Phoenix in early May to tour a Honeywell plant that is manufacturing protective masks as part of a government effort to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. The survey is a fresh indication that Arizona, which has voted Republican for president in every election since 1996, is in play for Biden, the former vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee.

“President Trump is going to have to do a lot more than parachute into Arizona to boost his sagging numbers,” pollster Mike Noble said in a statement. “With six months to go until Election Day, Trump is going to have to invest heavily in Arizona to pull out a victory in The Grand Canyon State.”

Continuing a trend from 2016 and the 2018 midterm elections, when college-educated voters migrated firmly into the Democratic camp, Biden is leading among this bloc 53% to 42%, while Trump holds the edge with voters without a college education 50% to 44%. Perhaps more concerning for the president is the hole he is in with voters who hold an unfavorable opinion of both him and Biden, a Delaware senator for 36 years before two terms as President Barack Obama's vice president.

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Among those voters concerned about both candidates, Biden leads Trump 63% to 31%. Four years ago, Trump did better among voters who held negative views of both him and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Two years ago, Trump's weakness in Arizona, particularly in the suburbs, helped Sen. Kyrsten Sinema become the first Democrat in a generation to win a Senate race there.

The OH Predictive Insights poll surveyed 600 likely Arizona voters from May 9 to May 11. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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