Kari Lake Could Be a Nightmare for Kyrsten Sinema
© Anna Moneymaker/Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Senator Kyrsten Sinema leaves her office to walk to the Senate Chambers in the U.S. Capitol Building on August 2, 2022 in Washington, DC. Inset: Former Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake speaks to supporters during her election night event at The Scottsdale Resort at McCormick Ranch on November 8, 2022 in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Despite losing the Arizona governor's race in the midterms, Republican Kari Lake has risen to MAGA star status and polls show that she has a good chance of defeating independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 if she decides to throw her hat into the ring.
Sinema has long been a thorn in the side of the Democratic Party. Her decision to leave the party and become an independent late last year sent a jolt through Congress, and it raised questions as to what her political future might look like if she wants to hold onto her seat. That uncertainty could be made more hazy by a challenge from Lake, who is considering a Senate run, according to recent reports.
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Although her decision to switch parties seemed to help her with Arizona's Republican and unaffiliated voters, according to a survey from Morning Consult, Sinema continues to rank among the most unpopular senators in the nation.
Before she switched to an independent, only 29 percent of independents and 38 percent of Republicans approved of her job performance. But after the switch, her approval saw a 13 percent bump among independents, and 5 percent among Republicans. However, her approval rating fell 12 percent among Democrats. Overall, 50 percent of Arizonans disapprove of the senator.
Sinema's decision to switch to an independent staved off the possibility of being ousted in a primary by a more traditional Democrat candidate, like Representative Ruben Gallego, who is rumored to be preparing his own bid against Sinema, in the primaries, political strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek.
"She believes she has a greater likelihood of making and winning a November 2024 general election this way," he said.
Early polling suggests that Sinema's chances could be further tested by a challenge from Lake, who would make a three-way race much more competitive. Despite being a polarizing figure, experts emphasize that Lake proved to be an adept campaigner in the midterms.
While Lake hasn't announced a run for Senate, a recent poll released by Blueprint Polling found the Republican polling ahead of Sinema and Gallego in a hypothetical scenario, with 36 percent support, compared to Sinema's 14 percent and Gallego's 32 percent.
Democratic strategist Michael Gordon told Newsweek that Sinema's decision to leave the Democratic Party likely made her path to reelection a little harder because she will need a certain number of Republican votes to get across the finish line. Playing to moderate voters from both major political parties, Sinema will need to capture enough votes from conservative Democrats and traditional Republicans to win reelection.
"Lake may be able to steal some of those [Republicans] away from her, and may help Gallego at the end of the day," Gordon said.
In line with its long history of being a swing state, Arizona is poised to once again be "host to one of the hottest Senate races," Klink said. A possible three-way race featuring Sinema, Lake and Gallego "would really shuffle political calculus even more...and likely hand the seat back to a Republican candidate."
"Each has a different path to victory and obviously whoever wins is going to win with a plurality, not a majority," Gordon said.
With the possibility of a Senate victory for Lake on the table, the Democratic Party will likely abandon Sinema and throw its money and institutional support behind Gallego, political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek.
"Ultimately I suspect that Sinema will find herself without a home," Townsend said.
With the resources that the Democratic Party once reserved for Sinema, Gallego's campaign could flourish, political strategist Michael Hopkins told Newsweek.
"The more voters get to know about Congressman Gallego's brave service to country and unfaltering commitment to Democracy, the broader his support will be statewide," he said.
Although "Sinema believes that a moderate center is enough to carry her to victory," according to Klink, her victory won't be guaranteed until her opponents in the Senate race are decided, and it becomes apparent just how far those rivals will be from the middle she has outlined.
Newsweek reached out to Sinema for comment.
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