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Poll: Biden leads Trump by slim margin in Minnesota

KARE-TV Minneapolis-St. Paul logo KARE-TV Minneapolis-St. Paul 5/24/2020 Emily Haavik
Joe Biden, Donald Trump are posing for a picture © Provided by KARE-TV Minneapolis-St. Paul

A  KARE 11, Minnesota Public Radio and Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found that Biden leads Trump by a relatively slim margin in Minnesota, while less than half of respondents approve of the president's job performance.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc., interviewed 800 registered voters in Minnesota by phone from May 18 through May 20.

Trump vs. Biden

When asked who they would vote for if the 2020 presidential election were held today, 49% of voters said Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden, while 44% said they would vote for incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. Another 7% were undecided.

In Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, Biden held a more sizable lead at 62%, with Trump trailing at 29% and 9% undecided. In the metro suburbs, Biden led with 48%, Trump had 44%, and 8% were undecided.

Trump took a solid lead in greater Minnesota. In the southern part of the state, he led with 57% to Biden's 39%, and only 4% undecided. In northern Minnesota, Trump carried 56% of respondents, and Biden took 38%, with 6% undecided.

Trump was more popular with men in Minnesota while Biden scored higher with women. Fifty-four percent of men said they would vote for Trump, while 37% said they would pick Biden. Nine percent were undecided. Among women, 59% chose Biden and 35% would vote for Trump. Six percent of women were undecided.

Respondents answered largely along party lines, with 95% of Democrats choosing Biden, 2% Trump, and 3% undecided. The results were exactly flipped for Republicans: 95% for Trump, 2% for Biden, 3% undecided.

The candidates were nearly split among independent voters, with Trump taking a narrow 42% to 41% lead. A large group of those voters, 17%, said they are undecided.

Biden took a larger lead among younger voters, with 53% of 18- to 34-year-olds. Trump would currently receive 35% of that age group's votes, with 12% undecided.

Biden also leads with ages 35-49, with 55% approval, while 40% of those respondents said they would vote for Trump. Five percent were undecided.

Among those 50 and up, Trump leads Biden. Of respondents ages 50-64, 49% said they'd vote for Trump and 44% for Biden, with 7% undecided. In the age group 65 and up, Trump had a bigger lead, with 52% against Biden's 41%. Seven percent of those respondents were also undecided.

Approval also seems to be split along income lines, with 53% of those making under $50,000 per year choosing Biden, compared to Trump's 40%; and 49% of people making $50,000 or more per year aligning with Trump, against Biden's 43%.

Of those who have no college degree, 50% say they'll vote for Trump and 44% for Biden. Of college graduates, 54% are with Biden and 38% with Trump.

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President's approval rating

Among all respondents in Minnesota, the president's approval rating is 45%. Two percent of people are unsure, and 53% disapprove. But a closer look shows a stark difference between urban and rural areas.

In Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, 67% of respondents disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance as president, and 31% approve. In the metro suburbs, 52% disapprove and 46% approve. But in both southern and northern Minnesota, the president's approval rating polled at 56%.

Men were much more likely than women to approve of the president, with 55% of men vs. 36% of women. The president's disapproval rating among women is 63%, with 1% undecided.

The approval ratings broke down largely on party lines, with 97% of Democrats disapproving and 95% of Republicans approving. Fifty-one percent of independent or "other" voters disapproved of the president, and 43% approved. Six percent said they were not sure.

Among different age groups, 59% of 18- to 34-year-olds disapproved of Trump, while 53% of those 65 and up approved. Among those 35-49 years old, 58% disapproved. The age group of 50-64 was evenly split at 49%, with 2% undecided.

Those with lower incomes were less likely to approve of the president. Trump's approval rating with respondents who made less than $50,000 per year was 42%, and disapproval in that income bracket was at 56%. With respondents who made more than $50,000, 50% approve and 48% disapprove.

Among college graduates, Trump's disapproval rating is 60% and his approval is 38%. Of those who have no college degree, 51% said they approve and 46% disapprove.

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