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Trump Still Beats Biden in 2024 Rematch Despite Jan. 6 Hearings: Polls

Newsweek logo Newsweek 7/23/2022 Jason Lemon
Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat President Joe Biden if the two politicians face off in a 2024 rematch, according to multiple recent polls. Above to the left, Biden disembarks Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on July 20. Above to the right, Trump speaks at a ‘Save America’ rally in support of Arizona GOP candidates on July 22 in Prescott Valley, Arizona. © BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Mario Tama/Getty Images Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat President Joe Biden if the two politicians face off in a 2024 rematch, according to multiple recent polls. Above to the left, Biden disembarks Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on July 20. Above to the right, Trump speaks at a ‘Save America’ rally in support of Arizona GOP candidates on July 22 in Prescott Valley, Arizona.

Former President Donald Trump is still favored to defeat President Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch if both politicians ultimately become their respective party's nominees, despite the evidence and testimony presented in televised hearings by the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Since June 9, the committee has held eight lengthy public hearings revealing what many analysts have described as "damning" evidence against Trump. The hearings have focused on the former president's actions, and lack thereof, when the Capitol riot unfolded, as well as his efforts to unconstitutionally overturn Biden's 2020 election win. Prominent Republican officials from Trump's own administration have provided testimony.

Regardless of the hearings and the evidence being laid out against Trump, recent polling largely shows that the former president would still more likely than not win in 2024 if he faces off against Biden a second time. Notably, Trump has not officially confirmed a plan to run for another White House term. Biden has said multiple times that he will seek reelection.

The current Real Clear Politics average of recent national surveys, which includes four separate polls from June 28 through July 20, shows Trump ahead by about 2 points. The former Republican president has the support of about 44.5 percent of voters compared to 42.5 percent who back the Democratic incumbent. Trump leads in three of the four recent polls included in the average while one has Biden narrowly ahead.

The most recent poll, carried out by Emerson College from July 19 to 20, showed Trump ahead of Biden by 3 points. The former president was backed by 46 percent of registered voters and the current president had the support of just 43 percent. It surveyed 1,078 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Polling from Trafalgar Group showed the former president with an even more substantial lead of 5 points. That survey, which was conducted from July 11 to 14, had Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 43 percent. The poll included 1,085 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

A survey by Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll from June 28 to 29 had Trump up 3 points as well. In the poll, just 40 percent of registered voters said they'd back Biden and 43 percent said they'd support Trump. A few more than 1,300 registered voters took part in the poll.


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The one outlier of the recent polls was by The New York Times/Siena College, showing Biden ahead by 3 points. That survey showed Trump with only 41 percent support compared to Biden's 44 percent. The poll included 849 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. It was conducted from July 5 to 7.

While Trump may be preferred over Biden by more voters, that may have a lot to do with the current president's unpopularity. Some recent polling data shows Biden's approval rating has sunk below even the lowest points Trump saw during his presidency. However, polling also suggests that Trump has lost ground with Republicans amid the January 6 hearings.

Survey data released by Reuters/Ipsos on Thursday showed that the number of Republicans opposed to Trump seeking another White House term has grown.

In the poll, carried out from July 20 to 21, about one-third (32 percent) of Republicans "strongly" or "somewhat" agreed with the statement that Trump "should NOT run for president again in 2024." That was an increase from about one-quarter (26 percent) who said the same just six weeks ago.

Some recent polls have shown that Americans would largely prefer that neither Trump nor Biden run for president in 2024. Polling conducted by Yahoo News/YouGov from June 10 to 13 revealed that a majority of voters opposed both politicians seeking additional presidential terms.

On the question regarding whether Trump should run again, 55 percent of people said no while just 31 percent said yes. The results were even worse for Biden, with 64 percent of respondents saying no and only 21 percent saying yes.

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