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Your unmissable guide to Tuesday's seismic elections by former Speaker of the House NEWT GINGRICH

Daily Mail logo Daily Mail 11/6/2022 Newt Gingrich For Dailymail.Com

Newt Gingrich served as the 50th speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999

This is a Big Choice election for America.

There is no question that Republicans are poised to win races across the country in a red wave. But the magnitude of the victory and how it washes across the American political landscape will have profound implications for the parties, the major players, and the future of the country.

Here is what I will be watching and thinking about on election night, as the results roll in:

If the Democrats manage to hold on to control of the U.S. Senate and lose the U.S. House of Representatives by only a small number of seats, there will be a sense in the Biden White House – and among their left-wing allies – that things can continue as usual.

They will feel vindicated that despite everything that has gone wrong, the American people still trust them more than they trust Republicans. They will feel that their strategic decision to emphasize abortion, perceived threats to democracy, and the Jan. 6 riot have paid off.

If, as seems possible, the Democrats lose control of the House by a big margin, the Senate by a smaller but decisive margin – and also lose a number of key governorships – there will be a bitter battle for control inside the Democrat Party.

All the elements of the left will fight over what went wrong, who must pay for it, and what must be done to turn things around in time for the 2024 presidential and congressional elections.

With regard to the Republican side, two big questions need to be settled.

No political leader in American history has had the kind of impact Trump has had on Republican nominations nationwide. (Above) Author, Newt Gingrich © Provided by Daily Mail No political leader in American history has had the kind of impact Trump has had on Republican nominations nationwide. (Above) Author, Newt Gingrich

First, just how effective was President Donald Trump's intervention in the nominating process?

No political leader in American history has had the kind of impact Trump has had on Republican nominations nationwide.

For a while, the media mantra was that Trump could nominate people, but his candidates would be too weak or extreme to win the general election. Liberal activist groups and even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee meddled in the Republican Party primaries and supported Trump's picks to prove the theory.

In the left-leaning media's collective mind, this would solidify the idea that Trump might get the Republican nomination for president in 2024 – but would then lose the general election. However, there is a real likelihood that most of the Trump-supported nominees are going to win on Tuesday.

If that happens, the establishment media is going to have an impossible time turning the election results into a defeat for Trump. In fact, the stage will be set for a triumphant Trump to announce his run for president.

The second question is: Will Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis win his gubernatorial re-election by a margin so large that it will automatically make him a serious contender for president? And if Trump does not run, would DeSantis automatically become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination?

There is a real possibility Gov. DeSantis will carry Florida's Miami-Dade County, which would be a remarkable show of strength.

For two decades, Miami-Dade, in the state's southeast corner, has gone blue. Hillary Clinton won the country by 29 percentage points in her race against Trump.

But it looks like DeSantis will carry the Latino vote, which in Florida includes Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Brazilians, and people from nearly every Latin American country.

If he does, it will be difficult to argue against the strength of his candidacy for president.

With these key questions, Americans are going to tune into election night with great anticipation.

The size and shape of the red wave will emerge early as the East Coast states begin to report the voting results.

There is a real likelihood that most of the Trump-supported nominees are going to win on Tuesday. © Provided by Daily Mail There is a real likelihood that most of the Trump-supported nominees are going to win on Tuesday. But it looks like DeSantis (above) will carry the Latino vote, which in Florida includes Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Brazilians, and people from nearly every Latin American country. © Provided by Daily Mail But it looks like DeSantis (above) will carry the Latino vote, which in Florida includes Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Brazilians, and people from nearly every Latin American country.

Here are some key indicators I will be watching for – from north to south:

In New Hampshire, Gen. Don Bolduc is now polling ahead of Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, an incumbent that many assumed would be a safe seat for her party

Now with people in sticker shock over the cost of home heating oil (they are currently filling up their tanks for the winter) Bolduc is almost certainly going to win.

Bolduc is an interesting example of how different the Republican Party is becoming. He entered the U.S. Army as a private and served so effectively that he retired as a Brigadier General. If he wins, it is an early sign the Republican wave is real.

One of the most important races in the country is in New York between Rep. Lee Zeldin and Gov. Kathy Hochul.

During the one and only debate in that contest, Gov. Hochul got frustrated over the constant discussion about locking up criminals and turning to her opponent said, 'I don't know why that's so important to you.'

This made her seem totally out-of-touch with average New Yorkers, who are horrified by historically high numbers of murders, rapes, robberies, and car jackings in their cities and state.

If Zeldin wins, this will be another clear signal of a big night for Republicans. In addition, it is likely that House Republicans will pick up a number of seats in New York State – another early indicator of the red wave.

Just south of New York state, in Pennsylvania, the race between Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is one of the closest in the country.

Fetterman started with a huge lead in the summer, but it has been melting away day-by-day. Polls indicate Oz is pulling ahead. And if Oz wins this seat, a Republican majority in the Senate is virtually guaranteed.

In North Carolina, the Republican nominee, Rep. Ted Budd is pulling away and will almost certainly keep that open seat for the GOP. If he were to lose, that would be a bad sign for the party

The Georgia Senate race is one of the hottest races this cycle.

If, as seems possible, the Democrats lose control of the House by a big margin, the Senate by a smaller but decisive margin – and also lose a number of key governorships – there will be a bitter battle for control inside the Democrat Party. © Provided by Daily Mail If, as seems possible, the Democrats lose control of the House by a big margin, the Senate by a smaller but decisive margin – and also lose a number of key governorships – there will be a bitter battle for control inside the Democrat Party.

Herschel Walker, the greatest football player in University of Georgia history, did so well debating Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock that Walker is now the front-runner.

But Georgia requires candidates to winover 50 percent of the vote, raising the possibility of this race going to a run-off – a second election to determine the winner

With Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp likely winning in a landslide over Stacey Abrams (a once-rising Democrat star whois now fading) Kemp's coattails may be enough to boost Walker above the 50 percent threshold to avoid the runoff.

However, there is a third-party candidate in the race. If that candidate peels enough votes away from Walker to keep him below the 50 percent mark, there will be a two-person contest, which almost everyone agrees Walker will win.

If Warnock were to somehow survive, that would be a big blow to the GOP's Senate control.

Finally, in Florida there is going to be a huge victory for Gov. DeSantis – and an almost equally big victory for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

In addition, Florida is likely to elect four additional Republican House members. This will contribute to Rep. Kevin McCarthy becoming Speaker of the House in what will probably be a surprisingly large GOP majority.

The tide is surely in Republican's favor.

These early reporting states will give you insight into how the wave is crashing, who and what it will wash away, and who it will leave standing.

For more commentary from Speaker Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com.

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