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2022 John Deere Classic odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that's nailed eight majors

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 6/30/2022 CBS Sports Staff
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The 2022 John Deere Classic field may be lacking star power, but there is still plenty of value to be found for your 2022 John Deere Classic bets. It is a full-field, regular schedule event, despite not featuring a member of the world's top 50. Webb Simpson is listed as the 10-1 favorite in the latest 2022 John Deere Classic odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Adam Hadwin (16-1) and Sahith Theegala (22-1) are the only other golfers listed inside of 25-1.

Former World No. 1 Jason Day will be looking to get back on track as a 28-1 long shot. Can he find his old form against the John Deere Classic 2022 field? Play gets underway from TPC Deere Run on Thursday, June 30. Before making any 2022 John Deere Classic picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,600 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the John Deere Classic 2022 (see tickets at StubHub) field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2022 John Deere Classic predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2022 John Deere Classic: Webb Simpson, a seven-time PGA Tour champion and the Vegas favorite, stumbles this week and doesn't crack the top three. Simpson is returning to TPC Deere Run for the first time in a dozen years, and you can understand why he's skipped this tournament for so long. He's played this course three times before and has failed to notch a top-10 finish, or even a top-20. His last appearance in 2010 saw him shoot 11-under-par, which was still 15 strokes behind winner Steve Stricker.

Simpson, who won the 2012 U.S. Open and the 2018 Players Championship, hasn't been anywhere near that form this season as he has as many missed cuts (four) as top-25s. Simpson's struggles can be directly attributed to his accuracy with an iron in his hand. In fact, Simpson enters this week's event ranked 124th in greens in regulation percentage (65.10%). Birdies are paramount at this course and Simpson simply isn't giving himself enough par-breaking opportunities to justify his short odds.

Another surprise: Patrick Rodgers, a 35-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has had plenty of success at this event over the years, finishing as a runner-up to Bryson DeChambeau five years ago. He has six sub-67 rounds in his last four visits, despite poor iron play during those tournaments.

Rodgers has improved his short game tremendously this year, giving him the skills he needs to break through this week. He has made the cut in seven of his last eight events, which all came against much stronger fields than he will be facing at the John Deere Classic. The model thinks he has a great shot to contend at TPC Deere Run, making 35-1 odds an intriguing value play. 

How to make 2022 John Deere Classic picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see the model's 2022 John Deere Classic picks here.

So who will win the John Deere Classic 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2022 John Deere Classic odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 John Deere Classic leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including this year's Masters.

2022 John Deere Classic odds, field

Webb Simpson 10-1

Adam Hadwin 16-1

Sahith Theegala 22-1

Denny McCarthy 25-1

Maverick McNealy 28-1

Jason Day 28-1

Adam Long 30-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 30-1

Scott Stallings 35-1

Brendon Todd 35-1

Patrick Rodgers 35-1

Charles Howell 35-1

Nick Hardy 35-1

J.T. Poston 40-1

Cam Davis 40-1

Kevin Streelman 40-1

Lucas Glover 45-1

C.T. Pan 45-1

Chez Reavie 50-1

Anirban Lahiri 50-1

Adam Schenk 50-1

Doug Ghim 50-1

Cameron Champ 50-1

Adam Svensson 50-1

Lanto Griffin 50-1

Martin Laird 50-1

John Huh 60-1

Alex Smalley 65-1

Dylan Frittelli 65-1

Emiliano Grillo 65-1

Nick Taylor 70-1

Patton Kizzire 80-1

David Lipsky 80-1

Mark Hubbard 80-1

Chris Gotterup 80-1

Nate Lashley 80-1

James Hahn 80-1

Taylor Pendrith 80-1

Andrew Putnam 80-1

Hank Lebioda 80-1

Zach Johnson 90-1

Tyler Duncan 90-1

Sam Ryder 90-1

Grayson Murray 100-1

Ryan Moore 100-1

Scott Piercy 100-1

Brandon Wu 100-1

Lee Hodges 100-1

Matthias Schwab 100-1

Michael Thompson 100-1

Stephan Jaeger 100-1

Ryan Armour 100-1

Charley Hoffman 100-1

Austin Smotherman 100-1

Matt Wallace 100-1

Chad Ramey 100-1

Scott Brown 125-1

Chase Seiffert 125-1

Ben Martin 125-1

Brandt Snedeker 125-1

Kevin Chappell 125-1

Chesson Hadley 125-1

Hayden Buckley 125-1

Kramer Hickok 125-1

Greyson Sigg 125-1

Taylor Moore 125-1

Brice Garnett 125-1

Andrew Novak 125-1

Vaughn Taylor 125-1

Joseph Bramlett 125-1

Doc Redman 125-1

Rory Sabbatini 125-1

Callum Tarren 150-1

Kelly Kraft 150-1

Sean O'Hair 150-1

Peter Malnati 150-1

Vince Whaley 150-1

Brian Stuard 150-1

Justin Lower 150-1

Robert Streb 175-1

Henrik Norlander 175-1

Roger Sloan 200-1

Jonathan Byrd 200-1

Scott Gutschewski 200-1

Cameron Percy 200-1

Paul Barjon 200-1

Bill Haas 200-1

Harry Higgs 200-1

Fabian Gomez 200-1

Austin Cook 200-1

Wesley Bryan 200-1

William McGirt 200-1

Trey Mullinax 200-1

Kevin Tway 250-1

Camilo Villegas 250-1

Ben Kohles 250-1

Michael Gligic 250-1

David Lingmerth 250-1

Chris Stroud 250-1

Andrew Landry 250-1

Mark Hensby 300-1

Seung-Yul Noh 300-1

Brandon Hagy 300-1

Satoshi Kodaira 300-1

David Skinns 300-1

Aaron Baddeley 300-1

Brian Gay 300-1

Jason Dufner 300-1

Jim Knous 300-1

Patrick Flavin 300-1

Sung Kang 300-1

Dylan Wu 350-1

Brett Drewitt 350-1

Greg Chalmers 400-1

Ryan Brehm 400-1

Nick Watney 400-1

Seth Reeves 400-1

Max McGreevy 400-1

Jared Wolfe 400-1

Dawie Van Der Walt 400-1

Joshua Creel 400-1

Jonas Blixt 400-1

Robert Garrigus 400-1

Shawn Stefani 400-1

Curtis Thompson 400-1

Bo Hoag 400-1

Ben Crane 500-1

Quinn Riley 500-1

D.J. Trahan 500-1

Martin Trainer 500-1

Bo Van Pelt 500-1

Richard S. Johnson 500-1

Boo Weekley 500-1

Arjun Atwal 500-1

Tommy Gainey 500-1

David Hearn 500-1

Richy Werenski 500-1

Johnson Wagner 500-1

D.A. Points 750-1

Sean McCarty 750-1

Derek Ernst 750-1

Ricky Barnes 750-1

Kevin Stadler 1000-1

Luke Gannon 1000-1

John Senden 1000-1

John Merrick 1000-1

Brian Davis 1000-1

Omar Uresti 1000-1

Parker McLachlin 1000-1

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