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Yankees’ Aaron Judge projected for steep drop in home run total 1/23/2023 Mike Rosenstein,

Will it be upward and onward for Aaron Judge? Or is it all downhill from here for the New York Yankees slugger?

Judge, the 2022 American League MVP, hit a league-record 62 home runs in 2022. That has some dreaming of Judge making a run at 70 and Barry Bonds’ single-season record (73 home runs in 2001).


But FanGraphs is out with its projections for the 2023 season. And while it has Judge leading the majors in home runs for the second straight year, the analytics site projects Judge will touch ‘em all just 44 times this season. Per

If a home run total of 44 for No. 99 seems way too low, don’t worry — these projections always tend to be on the conservative side. That being said, can you really see anyone having a chance to dethrone the 2022 home run king, who set the all-time AL single-season record with 62 last year?

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Judge, who contended for the Triple Crown last season, re-signed with the Yankees after his historic campaign, getting a nine-year, $360 million contract. He also was named team captain, a title which hadn’t been bestowed on anyone since Derek Jeter retired following the 2014 season.


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Mike Rosenstein may be reached at

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