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2018 Indy 500 odds, picks, lineup: Advanced model says Danica Patrick falls short in final IndyCar race

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 5/25/2018 CBS Sports Staff
a close up of Danica Patrick wearing a uniform © Provided by CBS Interactive Inc.

IndyCar's biggest race of the year unfolds Sunday at 12:15 p.m. ET with the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Alexander Rossi is the Vegas favorite at 8-1, followed closely by Ryan Hunter-Reay, Will Power and Helio Castroneves at 10-1. Before you make any kind of pick on the 2018 Indianapolis 500, you need to see what SportsLine's projection model has to say.

This model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing some of the biggest auto racing events this year.

It nailed the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 as well as Harvick's huge win at the KC Masterpiece 400. It was also all over five of the top 10 at Bristol and two of the top five at Daytona. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

Now that the Indianapolis 500 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

We can tell you the model says Danica Patrick, who is getting 20-1 Indy 500 odds for her final career race, finishes outside the top 10.

Patrick, the only woman to win an IndyCar race, has six career top-10 finishes in the Indianapolis 500, but hasn't raced in this event since 2011. She's the sentimental favorite for many, but the model doesn't love her chances to contend this weekend.

One huge surprise: Rossi, the Vegas favorite at 8-1, also finishes outside the top 10. He has four top-five finishes in his past five events, including a win at Long Beach, but there are far better values to be found in a loaded Indy 500 field.

The model also says a massive long shot with odds longer than 30-1 makes a serious run at the title. Anyone who bets on this underdog could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 Indianapolis 500? And which long shots stun IndyCar? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that has simulated this event 10,000 times and crushed its racing picks this year.

Alexander Rossi 8-1

Ryan Hunter-Reay 10-1

Will Power 10-1

Helio Castronoves 10-1

Josef Newgarden 12-1

Scott Dixon 12-1

Simon Pagenaud 12-1

Marco Andretti 12-1

Tony Kanaan 12-1

Sebastien Bourdais 12-1

Ed Carpenter 12-1

Sage Karam 15-1

Danica Patrick through the years (Provided by photo services)

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