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2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds, predictions, start time: Model reveals surprising Toyota Owners 400 picks

CBS Sports 4/2/2023 CBS Sports Staff

NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. brings out a caution after hitting the wall during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Sunday's 2023 Toyota Owners 400 will mark the first road race of the season and its host, Richmond Raceway, is one of the sport's most historic venues. The three-quarter mile oval began hosting NASCAR in 1953 and Sunday's race will be the 133rd held at Richmond. The 2023 NACSAR at Richmond green flag scheduled to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET. William Byron has two victories already this season, and after a fifth-place finish in which he led 28 laps with arguably the fastest car in the field in Austin, he's the 11-2 favorite in the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

Teammate Kyle Larson is priced at 6-1 in the 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds along with Kevin Harvick. Before scouring the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). Then it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values last week when he won in Austin for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard.

Top 2023 Toyota Owners 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. At 32 years old, Logano is already a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion with 32 victories under his belt. He's off to a strong start in 2023, as he'll enter Sunday sitting fifth in the NASCAR standings after penalties handed to Hendrick Motorsports after post-race inspections in Phoenix.

Logano has likely already clinched his playoff berth with a win in Atlanta and will head back to a track he's had plenty of success on. Logano is a two-time winner at Richmond and has had 16 top-10 finishes in 27 career starts on the iconic d-shaped oval. He's also adjusted to the Next-Gen car at Richmond, leading a race-high 222 laps on his way to a sixth-place finish in the last race at Richmond Raceway in August. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup. Harvick won at Richmond last August and has a total of four career victories on the three-quarter mile oval.

However, he hasn't run well in recent weeks, finishing 33rd in Atlanta after a crash and 13th last week at Circuit of the Americas. This is scheduled to be his final full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Richmond picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Richmond NASCAR odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Owners 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Richmond NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400.