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2020 NBA Playoffs: Clippers vs. Nuggets odds, picks, Game 6 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 9/13/2020 CBS Sports Staff
Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray are posing for a picture: Mar 4, 2020; Dallas, Texas, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball (2) reacts after scoring during the second quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. © Provided by CBS Sports

Mar 4, 2020; Dallas, Texas, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball (2) reacts after scoring during the second quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center.

The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets face off in a Sunday matinee with high stakes for both sides. The Clippers hold a 3-2 series lead and aim towards advancing to the Western Conference Finals, while the Nuggets look to stay alive in the 2020 NBA Playoffs and force a Game 7. Will Barton (knee) and Vlatko Cancar (foot) remain out for the Nuggets, with the Clippers reporting no injuries for Sunday's game.

William Hill lists Los Angeles as an 8.5-point favorite, up half a point from the opener, for this 1 p.m. ET tip-off in the Orlando bubble. The over-under for total points expected is 214.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Clippers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It's also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Clippers vs. Nuggets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Nuggets vs. Clippers:

  • Clippers vs. Nuggets spread: Clippers -8.5
  • Clippers vs. Nuggets over-under: 214.5 points
  • Clippers vs. Nuggets money line: Clippers -350, Nuggets +290
  • LAC: The Clippers are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Clippers can cover

The Clippers are the best offensive team remaining in the NBA Playoffs 2020, with the No. 2 offense in the league in points scored per possession during the regular season. L.A. holds the best offensive rating (116.9 points per 100 possessions) of any team still alive in the playoffs, and the team's underlying metrics are strong. The Clippers are No. 4 in turnover avoidance, giving the ball away on only 12.9 percent of possessions in the playoffs, and L.A. ranks No. 2 in both effective field-goal percentage (56.0) and true shooting percentage (60.0) in the playoffs. 

In this series, L.A. is also dominating on the offensive glass, grabbing 29.2 percent of missed shots, and there is every reason to believe the Clippers will continue to maintain an elite offense in Game 6 and beyond. Defensively, the sledding is more difficult against the prolific Nuggets, but L.A. actually has the second-best defense among the eight teams participating in the conference semifinals, holding Denver to just 1.06 points per possession in this series. 

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver is an explosive and talented offensive team, and that was on display in the team's comeback win in Game 5. The Nuggets rank in the top five offensively during the playoffs, scoring 112.3 points per 100 possessions, and Denver's assist-to-turnover ratio (1.75 to 1) is the second-best among teams still alive in the pursuit of an NBA title. Nikola Jokic, averaging 25.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in the playoffs, is a nightmare matchup for the Clippers, with Jamal Murray adding a perimeter element and averaging 26.5 points and 6.6 assists per game in the postseason.

The Nuggets are also a potent offensive rebounding team, ranking No. 4 in the postseason, and Denver is grabbing 25.2 percent of its own missed shots against L.A. in the first five games. Defensively, it is a bit of a struggle for the Nuggets against a lights-out Clippers offense, but they are making life difficult on Kawhi Leonard and company. Denver is holding L.A. to only a 50.2 percent assist rate in the series, forcing the Clippers into sub-optimal shot attempts created in one-on-one scenarios.

How to make Clippers vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Leonard and Michael Porter Jr. both projected to outperform their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Nuggets vs. Clippers? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Clippers vs. Nuggets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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