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College football odds, picks, predictions, best bets for Week 4, 2022: Computer simulation backs USC, Texas

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 9/24/2022 CBS Sports Staff
Derek Mason Vanderbilt © Provided by CBS Sports

Derek Mason Vanderbilt

One of the marquee matchups on the Week 4 college football schedule features Hendon Hooker and the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers hosting Anthony Richardson and the No. 20 Florida Gators in the 3:30 p.m. ET SEC on CBS game. Hooker has thrown for at least 221 yards and two touchdowns in every game this season, helping the Volunteers average 52.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Gators avoided their second straight loss with a nail-biting 31-28 victory against USF. However, Florida has dominated this SEC East rivalry over the years, winning 16 of their last 17 against the Volunteers.

The latest Week 4 college football odds from Caesars Sportsbook list the Volunteers as 10.5-point favorites at home. Elsewhere in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Missouri Tigers and No. 10 Arkansas is a 2-point underdog against No. 23 Texas A&M. Before locking in any Week 4 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 4 of the 2022 college football season on a 51-43 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 4

One of the college picks the model is high on in Week 4: No. 22 Texas (-7) goes on the road and covers against Texas Tech in a 3:30 p.m. ET matchup in Lubbock. The Longhorns have dominated this in-state rivalry over the years, winning four straight and 11 of their last 13 against the Red Raiders. Texas secured a lopsided 70-35 victory over Texas Tech last season behind a strong effort from running back Bijan Robinson, who finished with 137 rushing yards in that victory.

Robinson is having a stellar season for the Longhorns in 2022, recording 51 carries for 311 yards and five touchdowns. In last week's victory against UTSA, Robinson recorded 20 carries for 183 yards and three touchdowns. SportsLine's model is projecting Robinson to rush 114 yards and a touchdown on Saturday, helping the Longhorns cover in 60% of simulations. 

Another one of the model's college football picks: No. 7 USC (-5.5) goes on the road and covers against Oregon State in a 9:30 p.m. ET matchup in Corvallis. USC has not looked like a team that is playing under a first-year head coach so far this season. Lincoln Riley has his offense clicking, as they have scored at least 40 points in all three of their games, including a 45-17 win over Fresno State last week.

Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams has thrown for 874 yards and eight touchdowns while avoiding any interceptions, and running back Travis Dye has turned 30 carries into 227 yards and two touchdowns. Oregon State is also unbeaten coming into this game, but it has been much less impressive through its first three outings. The Beavers only beat Fresno State by three points two weeks ago.

SportsLine's model is projecting a big day for Williams, who is throwing for more than 320 yards and three touchdowns in the latest simulations. USC's offensive firepower is one of the main reasons that the Trojans are covering more than 70% of the time. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 4

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 4, and it says a Top 25 favorite will go down hard in one of the week's biggest games. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which Top 25 favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned more than $3,300 in profit over the past six-plus seasons, and find out.

College football odds for Week 4 (via Caesars)

See full Week 4 college football picks, odds, predictions here

Saturday, Sept. 24

Kent State at Georgia (-45, 62)

Maryland at Michigan (-17, 64.5)

Central Michigan at Penn State (-28, 63.5)

Featured Game| Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
Moneyline
Spread
Total
PSU
-7000
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-28
-110
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o61.5
-110
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CMICH
+1800
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+28
-110
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u61.5
-110
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Duke at Kansas (-7, 65.5)

Clemson at Wake Forest (+7, 55.5)

Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5, 45.5)

Florida at Tennessee (-10.5, 62.5)

Featured Game| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
Moneyline
Spread
Total
TENN
-350
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-10.5
-110
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o63
-110
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FLA
+275
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+10.5
-110
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u63
-110
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Notre Dame at North Carolina (-1.5, 55)

Featured Game| North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Moneyline
Spread
Total
UNC
-145
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-2.5
-110
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o56
-110
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ND
+122
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+2.5
-110
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u56
-110
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Texas at Texas Tech (+7, 61)

Featured Game| Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Longhorns
Moneyline
Spread
Total
TXTECH
+228
BET NOW
+7
-110
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o61
-110
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TEXAS
-285
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-7
-110
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u61
-110
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Tulsa at Ole Miss (-21.5, 65.5)

Featured Game| Ole Miss Rebels vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Moneyline
Spread
Total
MISS
-1600
BET NOW
-21
-110
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o66
-110
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TULSA
+900
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+21
-110
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u66
-110
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Oregon at Washington State (+6.5, 57.5)

Featured Game| Washington State Cougars vs. Oregon Ducks
Moneyline
Spread
Total
WASHST
+205
BET NOW
+6.5
-110
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o57.5
-110
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OREG
-250
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-6.5
-110
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u57.5
-110
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Northern Illinois at Kentucky (-26.5, 53)

Featured Game| Kentucky Wildcats vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Moneyline
Spread
Total
UK
-4500
BET NOW
-26.5
-110
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o53.5
-110
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NILL
+1550
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+26.5
-110
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u53.5
-110
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Arkansas at Texas A&M (-2, 48.5)

Featured Game| Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Moneyline
Spread
Total
TXAM
-130
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-2
-110
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o51
-110
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ARK
+110
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+2
-110
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u51
-110
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Wisconsin at Ohio State (-19, 57)

Featured Game| Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Moneyline
Spread
Total
OHIOST
-1100
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-19
-110
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o56.5
-110
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WISC
+700
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+19
-110
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u56.5
-110
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Vanderbilt at Alabama (-40.5, 59)

Kansas State at Oklahoma (-12.5, 53)

Featured Game| Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Moneyline
Spread
Total
OKLA
-550
BET NOW
-13.5
-110
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o53
-110
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KSTATE
+400
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+13.5
-110
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u53
-110
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USC at Oregon State (+6, 70.5)

Featured Game| Oregon State Beavers vs. USC Trojans
Moneyline
Spread
Total
OREGST
+185
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+5.5
-110
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o71
-110
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USC
-225
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-5.5
-110
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u71
-110
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Utah at Arizona State (+15.5, 54)

Featured Game| Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Utah Utes
Moneyline
Spread
Total
ARIZST
+500
BET NOW
+16.5
-110
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o53.5
-110
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UTAH
-700
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-16.5
-110
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u53.5
-110
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Stanford at Washington (-13.5, 63.5)

Featured Game| Washington Huskies vs. Stanford Cardinal
Moneyline
Spread
Total
WASH
-600
BET NOW
-14
-110
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o63
-110
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STNFRD
+430
BET NOW
+14
-110
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u63
-110
BET NOW
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