College football rankings: Most overrated, underrated teams
Believe it or not, college football rankings aren't exactly a science.
Sometimes, the teams that get that sweet spot in the early Top 25 polls don't cut it, and the unknown teams go and make a run.
Which teams were too over-hyped, and which flew under the radar in the last decade?
Ranking college football's most overrated, underrated teams this decade
For preseason rankings, we're using the Stassen Preseason Consensus, which combines 19 different football ranking services and takes an average of each team's position
2022 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Texas A&M
Preseason average: No. 10
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: TCU
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 2
Fresh off signing what 247Sports called the single greatest recruiting class in modern college football history, the Aggies seemed to be on the precipice of finally taking charge in the SEC and making a run for the College Football Playoff.
But a Week 2 loss at home to Appalachian State and a string of six straight losses midseason, including to four unranked opponents, doomed A&M's chances, finishing a very underwhelming 5-7 with a 2-6 mark in SEC play, followed by a wave of transfers out of the program.
Meanwhile, everybody missed on TCU in the preseason, coming in under a first-year head coach in Sonny Dykes, but after starting 5-0 and laying the wood on Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs earned their first ranking.
TCU went into the Big 12 title game at 12-0 and despite a close loss to Kansas State, earned the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, taking down Michigan in the semifinal before finishing on the wrong end of a 65-7 beatdown by Georgia in the national title game, the biggest loss by any team in postseason history.
2021 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Iowa State
Preseason average: No. 7
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Michigan
Preseason average: No. 23
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 3
Iowa State was the sexy pick to make the College Football Playoff going into 2021, earning its highest-ever mark in the AP preseason Top 25 rankings. But the Cyclones started 2-2 and lost four of their last six. Talked about a missed opportunity.
Michigan was coming off a two-win season in '20 and only four services ranked the Wolverines coming into 2021 while AP Top 25 voters didn't rank Michigan at all.
But UM won its first seven and emerged as the No. 6 team in college football in mid-October. A win over Ohio State followed, as did a Big Ten championship. But it was no match for eventual national champion Georgia in the CFP semifinal.
2020 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Penn State
Preseason average: No. 6
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Cincinnati
Preseason average: No. 25
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 8
It was a season to forget for Penn State, which started 0-5, its worst five-game start since 1887 — which is to say, ever. PSU rebounded and won its final four games, but that wasn't enough to register in the polls.
Cincinnati was the darling of the 2020 college football season, going undefeated and winning the AAC before falling to two-loss Georgia by a field goal in the Peach Bowl.
2019 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Washington
Preseason average: No. 11
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Minnesota
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 10
Washington started 4-1 on the year and beat No. 21 USC early, but lost four of its next six and then dropped out of the AP poll in mid-October.
The Huskies fell to third in the Pac-12 North, but finished on a high-ish note, beating No. 19 Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Third-year coach P.J. Fleck led the Gophers to their first 11-win season since 1904, losing to Iowa and Wisconsin, but beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl.
2018 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Wisconsin
Preseason average: No. 6
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Washington State
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 10
Wisconsin came into the season with a No. 4 AP preseason ranking, the best-ever mark in program history.
However, BYU upset the Badgers in Week 3, and Wisconsin lost four more games, including against rival Minnesota, breaking a 14-game win streak in that series.
Mike Leach turned a lot of heads in his seventh season at Washington State, losing to USC and Washington, but winning a school-record 11 games. Transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew led college football in completions and attempts.
2017 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Florida State
Preseason average: No. 3
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Central Florida
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: 6
Things didn't go right for the Seminoles from the jump. Florida State lost starting QB Deandre Francois in the season opener, and then lost five of its first seven games and six of its first nine.
FSU beat rival Florida that year, but against a Gators team that finished 4-7.
Meanwhile, UCF surprised the college football world, going undefeated in 13 games, including a Peach Bowl win over No. 7 Auburn.
It finished the only undefeated team in FBS, but CFP selectors kept the Knights out of the final four. Never mind: Florida state legislators passed a resolution saying UCF was the national champion anyway.
2016 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Notre Dame
Preseason average: No. 9
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Penn State
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 7
Notre Dame went 10-2 in 2015 and owned a No. 10 spot in the AP college football rankings coming into 2016. But it opened with a loss at Texas, one of five L's in seven games to start the season. In all, the Irish went 4-8, the program's worst record since 2007.
Preseason skepticism looked accurate for Penn State, which started out 2-2 with losses at Pitt and against No. 4 Michigan. But things turned around real quick, as PSU won its next nine straight games, including a major upset at No. 2 Ohio State and over No. 6 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. It lost a shootout with USC in the Rose Bowl.
2015 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Auburn
Preseason average: No. 7
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Houston
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 8
Gus Malzahn's third season at Auburn was one to forget, as the Tigers went 7-6 and placed last in the SEC West standings.
It started well enough, with a win over No. 6 Louisville in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game, but Auburn went 1-3 against Top 25 teams down the stretch, including a loss to No. 2 Alabama.
Tom Herman exceeded all expectations in his first year at Houston, starting out 10-0 before a three-point loss at UConn ended that streak.
But the Cougars recovered, winning their next three, all against ranked teams, including over No. 9 Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
2014 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Oklahoma
Preseason average: No. 4
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: TCU
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 3
OU came into the 2014 season with an AP No. 4 ranking and started out 4-0 with wins over Tennessee and West Virginia, but the Sooners lost to No. 25 TCU, the first of three losses in five weeks.
Among those defeats was to No. 14 Kansas State and No. 10 Baylor, and by 34 points to Clemson in the Athletic Bowl.
That aforementioned TCU team came in unranked, but nudged into the No. 25 position after beating Oklahoma. It lost the next week, to No. 5 Baylor, but inched back into the Top 10, and routed No. 9 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.
2013 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: Georgia
Preseason average: No. 4
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Auburn
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 2
Georgia lost its opener at No. 8 Clemson as the fifth-ranked team in the country, but won its next four, including against Top 10 teams South Carolina and LSU.
But the Bulldogs dropped consecutive games against 25th ranked Missouri and unranked Vanderbilt. That dropped UGA out of the Top 25, and it lost in the famous "Prayer at Jordan-Hare" game against No. 7 Auburn.
Nobody really gave Auburn a shot under first-year coach Gus Malzahn, but his Tigers won 12 of their first 13 games. Including against ranked Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, and top-ranked Alabama in the "Kick Six" game, one of Auburn's two miracle performances in 2013.
It lost to Florida State by three in the final BCS National Championship Game.
2012 season
© Provided by CFB-HQ on FanNation
Overrated: USC
Preseason average: No. 1
Final Top 25 ranking: Not ranked
Underrated: Texas A&M
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: Tie-No.5 (Georgia)
USC emerged from a two-year bowl ban loaded for bear under third-year coach Lane Kiffin and armed with an AP No. 1 preseason ranking. Which it promptly lost in a Week 3 loss to No. 21 Stanford.
Troy won its next four and got back into the Top 10, but disaster struck late in the season. USC lost four of its final five — against the likes of No. 2 Oregon, No. 17 UCLA, and No. 1 Notre Dame.
And then again, in the Sun Bowl against Georgia Tech, who posted a 21-7 victory over the Trojans in the desert.
A&M made a splash in its first season as a member of the SEC. After a Week 1 loss to Florida, the Aggies won 10 of their final 11, including a famous five-point win at No. 1 Alabama with Johnny Football at the helm. A&M then pulverized No. 12 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams
