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Best NFL prop bets for every Week 13 game: Kenny Pickett breaks out, Jalen Hurts & A.J. Brown dominate Titans, Sauce Gardner checks Justin Jefferson

Sporting News 12/4/2022 Sloan Piva
© Provided by Sporting News

The air across much of the country is starting to get as cold as the betting market has been for spread, moneyline, and over/under wagerers. So, let's warm up with some player props fresh out of the oddsmakers' ovens, highlighting our favorite player or game prop for every contest of this loaded Week 13 NFL slate. 

Player props, game props, and same-game parlays have become massively popular over the past few years. Props are not only more fun to follow while watching a game, but they also seem to produce fewer "bad beats" than standard moneyline, spread, and over/under bets. You don't always have to hitch your wagon to an entire team or put your proverbial chips on a certain final score. In the world of props, you can simply bet on one player to produce (or fail to produce) at a certain level. 

Every Thursday, we scour BetMGM, Sports Interaction, and Caesars to pinpoint one potentially lucrative prop for each NFL game of the upcoming slate. It could be a player or team prop that we find the most interesting, most promising, or both. These prop wagers can involve offense, defense, special teams, or general scoring, but they all offer bettors distinct value based on stats and trends.

Let’s check out our favorite Week 13 props for every game and make some money in what should be another fun week of NFL action.

MORE WEEK 13 NFL BETTING: Best bets | Against the Spread | Moneyline

Best NFL prop bets for every Week 13 game

All prop bets are from BetMGM and Caesars. 

Patriots vs. Bills: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 104.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)

Damien Harris (thigh) is out, Stevenson has averaged over 106 scrimmage yards since Week 3, and Buffalo has surrendered 141 rushing yards per game over the past five weeks. Buffalo has also allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL over the past three games. With Stevenson heavily involved as a runner and receiver, we can't help but think the second-year back will see 22-25 touches on Thursday night. That's more than enough opportunities for us considering he's averaging 5.2 yards per touch this season. Stud Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is still out, too — cherry on top, baby! Book it. 

Steelers at Falcons: Kenny Pickett OVER 237.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)

The average box score reader won't think much about Pickett's Week 12 performance, but my sports-nerd friends and I were texting each other like mad about him. The rookie looked as confident in the pocket as ever against a solid Indy front-seven and dropped some impressive passes into tight windows for clutch first downs. No passing TDs and the yardage was kept in check (174), but Indy is the fifth-stingiest pass defense in the NFL this season (190.6 ypg/allowed)! Atlanta, on the other hand, is the fifth-most generous pass defense in the NFL (255.6). I'm all over the Pickett-to-Pickens connection this weekend, and I've got KP going for 255-plus air yards for the fourth time in his eight NFL starts.

Eagles vs. Titans: Jalen Hurts OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+120 on Caesars)

What are we missing here? Hurts has tossed at least two TDs in five of Philly's past six games, and Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most passing TDs this season. A.J. Brown will be going HAM at home against his former squad, who traded him for a first-round pick instead of giving him the bag (AJB is +135 to score a TD, which we also like). Two passing TDs is easy-peasy, lemon-squeezy, kids. Tennessee has surrendered exactly two passing TDs per away game this season, and that number might go up Sunday after the MVP candidate is through with them. 

Vikings vs. Jets: Justin Jefferson UNDER 6.5 catches (-139 on Caesars)

Jefferson may be the most electric wideout in the NFL, and his status as the leading receiver in Pro Bowl voting tells you how the public will likely be betting this prop. This weekend, though, I'm betting on Gardner, who "love(s) going against the best." Sauce leads the NFL in pass break-ups and has only allowed one TD. He also has the sixth-best cover rating and catch-rate allowed and has surrendered just 2.4 catches per game as a pro. Now, we're not saying the Sauce will be cover the entirety of Jefferson's pie-chart of routes (excuse the pun...I'm a father of two), but even if he shadows him 40-60 percent of the time, I like Jefferson and Kirk Cousins' rhythms to be greatly affected. Gang Green's defense has thrived under Robert Saleh this season, and New York has a legit opportunity to rise in the AFC playoff standings. I've got JJ stuck at five or fewer catches this Sunday. 

WEEK 13 DFS: Best values | Best stacks

Jaguars at Lions: Trevor Lawrence OVER 254.5 passing yards (-115) and OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-130, both on BetMGM)

Lawrence looked like he cracked a cheat code last week against a solid Ravens defense, passing for 321 yards and three TDs en route to a stunning 28-27 upset victory in comeback fashion. He has developed a superb rapport with Zay Jones, whose downfield presence complements fellow wideout Christian Kirk and versatile RB Travis Etienne Jr. well. The Lions have allowed the fourth-most air yards and fifth-most passing TDs in the NFL this season, and the over/under for this one is 51 (the second-highest on the entire Week 13 slate). Come for the props, stay for the locks. 

WEEK 13 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel

Giants vs. Commanders: Daniel Jones UNDER 197.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM) 

The only verified starting QBs this weekend who have averaged fewer passing yards per game than Jones this season are Mac Jones, Taylor Heinicke, and Marcus Mariota (what a weird Mount Rushmore of mediocrity). Washington has actually been quite solid against the pass lately, allowing just 154 air yards per game over its past three. If the G-men pull off a victory over their division rivals, it will have more to do with the legs of Jones and Saquon Barkley. This will be a defensive battle. If you want a QB duel, stay far away from this one. 

Broncos at Ravens: Russell Wilson UNDER 0.5 passing TDs (+190 on Caesars)

Wow, what a difference three months makes. In the preseason, I was all over Mr. Unlimited as a fantasy league-winner and a franchise-leader who would put Denver back on the map of offensive contenders. Now, I'm betting the UNDER on 0.5 passing TD props for Russ and calling him Mr. Limited while cracking jokes like "Broncos Country, let's hide." Baltimore has been solid defensively since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith at the trade deadline, last week's embarrassing choke-job against the Jaguars notwithstanding. John Harbaugh and the Ravens are probably royally pissed off, so I don't like the NFL's least-effective red-zone passer to gobble up any TDs through the air this weekend. It's not far-fetched. He's been held out of the end zone on three different occasions, most recently against the otherwise-generous secondary of the Raiders two weeks ago. 

Browns at Texans: Cleveland wins by 7-12 points (+375 on BetMGM)

No player props listed for this one yet, which is a shame because I really wanted to bet Nick Chubb's rushing OVER or Deshaun Watson's passing UNDER. Alas, I'll pick a custom spread and go with the Browns to win by between seven and 12 points. Houston has all but given up on this season, and Kyle Allen helps but not nearly enough to slow down Chubb and Kareem Hunt. And who really expects Watson to lose to his former franchise? The Texans have lost by between eight and 15 points in each of their past five games and between seven and 13 points in all four of their home losses this season. If we lose this prop by a point, I will jump out the window). 

Packers at Bears: Green Bay alternate total OVER 25 points (+102 on Caesars)

Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers expects to play this weekend against his favorite opponent, whom he has famously declared he "still owns." Chicago has allowed the sixth-most points in the NFL this season and has surrendered an incredible 34.6 points per game over the past five weeks. Let the points rain like frogs in 'Magnolia.' 

Seahawks at Rams: Geno Smith OVER 249.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)

Rock bottom just seems to keep getting lower for L.A. in what has honestly been one of the worst Super Bowl-defending campaigns in NFL history: No rushing game all season, offensive line in shambles, Allen Robinson (foot) done for the year, Cooper Kupp (ankle) on the IR, Matthew Stafford (concussion, neck) likely done for the year, and now Aaron Donald missing the first game due to injury in his illustrious career. Yep, give us Geno, who has enjoyed a polar-opposite season to the Rams. Smith looks better than Russell Wilson in Seattle, and he will love life in a pocket unencumbered by Donald. I also like Smith's UNDER 17.5 rushing yards prop (-115), as I just don't think he'll need to run the ball. That's what Rookie of the Year frontrunner Kenneth Walker III is for, and Smith will be focusing on dropping dimes to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett all game. 

Dolphins at 49ers: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 272.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)

I've got the Niners winning this one 26-20 — check my full preview and betting prediction here — so naturally I'm springing for Tua's UNDER on this whopper of a yardage prop. The 49ers are rounding into form and will be prepared for one of their biggest home games of the regular season. San Francisco hasn't allowed nearly this many air yards in well over a month. 

Chiefs at Bengals: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 2.5 passing TDs (-165 on BetMGM)

You can spring for the OVER here and take the enticing plus odds (+225), but I like Cincy's D to scheme a run-funneling defense to make rookie Isiah Pacheco beat them. And there's no way Travis Kelce can continue breaking free the way he has over the past few weeks, right? Right? Guard that friggin' man. I like the Chiefs to win this one, but I don't think it's going to be a 55-point scoring fest like so many are predicting. These teams can play pretty good defense and likely will for this one. 

Chargers at Raiders: Keenan Allen OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)

Allen has now been back from his hamstring injury for a few weeks, and he seems to be getting warmer with every passing game. As Justin Herbert's favorite target, expect the Pro Bowler to explode against a porous Raiders defense allowing wide receivers to haul in 160 air yards per game this season. 

Cowboys vs. Colts: Tony Pollard OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-113 on Caesars)

How quickly we all forget that Pollard was running over the whole league right up to last week. The Giants held the fourth-year man largely in check in the Cowboys' Week 12 win, but Pollard still ended up with 60 rushing yards. In Dallas's four games prior, Pollard tallied a combined 409 rushing yards. And Indy may be a stout passing defense, but it has allowed 313 rushing yards over the past two weeks. This looks like a prime bounce-back opportunity for the breakout RB. 

Buccaneers vs. Saints: Mike Evans UNDER 60.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)

Evans always seems to struggle against the division-rival Saints, mostly because Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore lives in his head rent-free. Lattimore returned to practice for New Orleans in Week 12 for the first time since injuring his abdomen in Week 5, and we would be blown away if he didn't return to the game field this weekend against his arch-nemesis. When these squads last met, Evans defended teammate Tom Brady by pushing Lattimore in the back, something he has done to the DB in the past. Evans has already suffered a slump over the past few weeks, and his chemistry with Brady has been off-kilter all year. Unlike Pollard in the previous prop, this does not appear to be a bounce-back opportunity for the veteran receiver. 

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