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NFL BAD BEAT BLOG: Raiders heavy underdogs late in 4th quarter

Las Vegas Review-Journal logo Las Vegas Review-Journal 11/27/2022 David Schoen, Las Vegas Review-Journal

Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season.

Top matchups include the Raiders visiting the Seattle Seahawks, the Cincinnati Bengals at the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers at the Philadelphia Eagles in the Sunday night game.

Refresh this blog throughout the games to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and more.


3:53 p.m.: Geno Smith to Travis Homer on the Spider 2 Y Banana type play for 18 yards and the Seahawks lead the Raiders 34-27 with 5:37 remaining in regulation. The Seahawks are -700 on the live line (Raiders +475).

3:44 p.m.: The Raiders’ rushing attack can’t come through on fourth-and-short near midfield and the Seahawks take over on downs with 8:55 remaining in the fourth quarter. Big gamble there by Josh McDaniels and he craps out. The Seahawks are -240 on the live line (Raiders +195), total 63½.

3:36 p.m.: There’s a Chandler Jones sighting, as he pounces on the Seahawks fumble and the Raiders have the ball. It’s 27-27 with a little less than 12 minutes to play. The Raiders are -115 on the live line (Seahawks -115), total 63½.

3:29 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER. Raiders 27, Seahawks 27. The Seahawks are -160 on the live line (Raiders +130), total 66½.

3:12 p.m.: The Raiders drive fizzles and Josh McDaniels opts to take the points. Daniel Carlson kicks a 25-yard field goal to tie the score 27-27 with 5:03 on the clock in the third quarter. The Seahawks are -180 on the live line (Raiders +150), total 71½.

2:59 p.m.: Kenneth Walker III bulls his way into the end zone and the Seahawks score on the opening drive of the third quarter to take a 27-24 lead over the Raiders. The Seahawks are -220 on the live line (Raiders +180), total 72½.

2:58 p.m.: Second-half line: Chiefs -7, total 20.

2:57 p.m.: Second-half line: 49ers -3½, total 20½.

2:54 p.m.: HALFTIME: Chiefs 13, Rams 3. First-half winners: Chiefs -9½, under 22½. The Chiefs held a huge advantage in total yards but needed a 32-yard field goal by Harrison Butker with 16 seconds left in the first half to cover.

2:52 p.m.: HALFTIME: 49ers 10, Saints 0. First-half winners: 49ers -6, under 21½. Jauan Jennings caught a deflected pass for a touchdown with 13 seconds left in the second quarter for the first-half cover.

2:47 p.m.: Second-half line: Seahawks -3½, total 24.

2:46 p.m.: Second-half line: Chargers -½, total 24.

2:40 p.m.: HALFTIME: Raiders 24, Seahawks 20. First-half winners: Raiders +3, over 23½. Derek Carr threw two touchdowns to cancel out a pair of interceptions, and the first-half money line cashed on the underdog.

2:38 p.m.: HALFTIME: Cardinals 17, Chargers 14. First-half winners: Cardinals +1, over 24. Kyler Murray scored on a 5-yard run with 12 seconds left until halftime and the Cardinals first-half money line hit.

2:29 p.m.: Jimmy Garoppolo might be the worst/best game manager of our generation.

2:21 p.m.: Geno Smith drops it in the bucket for Tyler Lockett and the Seahawks have cut the Raiders lead to 21-20 with 5:21 left in the second quarter. The Seahawks are -145 on the live line (Raiders +115), total 71½.

2:14 p.m.: The Raiders cash in on Denzel Perryman’s interception as Josh Jacobs runs 30 yards for a touchdown for a 21-13 lead over the Seahawks midway through the second quarter. The Raiders are -150 on the live line (Seahawks +120), total 67½.

2:06 p.m.: Nice play design frees up Mack Hollins and he strolls into the end zone for a 36-yard touchdown. The Raiders lead the Seahawks 14-13 with 10:02 left in the second quarter. The Seahawks are -180 on the live line (Raiders +150), total 60½.

1:42 p.m.: FINAL: Jaguars 28, Ravens 27. Marvin Jones’ 10-yard touchdown grab with 14 seconds left in regulation capped a 10-play drive, and Trevor Lawrence hit Zay Jones for the winning two-point conversion as the Jaguars cashed as +145 money-line underdogs. Justin Tucker’s 67-yard field-goal attempt fell short as time expired. The game went over the total of 43.

1:27 p.m: FINAL: Browns 23, Buccaneers 17, OT. Nick Chubb scored on a 3-yard run with 19 seconds left to give the Browns the outright win as +150 money-line underdogs. Amari Cooper’s 46-yard grab in the final minute set up the touchdown. The game stayed under the total of 42.

1:18 p.m.: Derek Carr takes a liver shot and he’s down for the count. Jarrett Stidham is getting ready to come in at quarterback for the Raiders. The Seahawks are -320 on the live line (Raiders +250), total 54½.

1:16 p.m.: The Jaguars turned a Ravens fumble into a go-ahead turnover and the underdogs lead 20-19 with a little over 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars are -160 on the live line (Ravens +130).

1:09 p.m.: The Seahawks cash in on the turnover and take a 7-0 lead on Kenneth Walker III’s 12-yard touchdown run. The Seahawks are -400 on the live line (Raiders +300), total 53½.

1:08 p.m.: FINAL: Panthers 23, Broncos 10. Sam Darnold accounted for two touchdowns, and the Panthers won after the game closed as a pick ’em. The game stayed under the total of 36.

1:06 p.m.: Derek Carr gets picked off 15 seconds into the game and the Raiders are off to a dreadful start in Seattle.

1:05 p.m.: FINAL: Dolphins 30, Texans 15. The Dolphins went scoreless in the second half but still covered as 14-point home favorites. The game stayed under the total of 47½.

1:01 p.m.: Here are some of the props to track for this afternoon’s Raiders-Seahawks game:

Team totals: Raiders 21½ (under -120), Seahawks 26½.

Alternate point spreads: Raiders -3½ (+270), +10½ (-260); Seahawks +3½ (-330), -10½ (+220).

General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -170/no +150); largest lead 14½ points (under -120); longest TD 39½ yards (over -120); will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes Even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -2,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +330/no -400); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +320/no -380); will either team score three straight times (yes -210/no +180); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -330/no +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +110/no -130).

Raiders props: Derek Carr 22½ completions, 35½ attempts, 252½ passing yards, longest completion 36½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -130), will throw an interception (yes -110/no -110); Davante Adams 89½ receiving yards, 6½ receptions (over -145), longest reception 25½, will score a TD (yes -110/no -110); Mack Hollins 39½ receiving yards; Daniel Carlson 6½ kicking points (over -120).

Seahawks props: Geno Smith 23½ completions, 33½ attempts, 259½ passing yards, longest completion 36½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -140), will throw an interception (yes -110/no -110); Kenneth Walker III 77½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes -120/no Even); DK Metcalf 64½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +150/no -170); Tyler Lockett 63½ receiving yards; Jason Myers 6½ kicking points (over -125).

1:00 p.m.: FINAL: Bengals 20, Titans 16. Sam Darnold connected with Tee Higgins for the go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth quarter and the Bengals ran out the final 6:07 to get the outright win as a pick ’em. The game stayed under the total of 42½.

12:56 p.m.: This afternoon’s schedule:

— Raiders (+180) at Seahawks (-4, 47½, -210), 1:05 p.m.

— Chargers (-2, 48½, -135) at Cardinals (+115), 1:05 p.m.

— Rams (+800) at Chiefs (-15½, 42, -1400), 1:25 p.m.

— Saints (+340) at 49ers (-9, 43½, -410), 1:25 p.m.

* Note that Chargers spread shrinking.

12:54 p.m.: Free football in Cleveland. The Buccaneers and Browns are headed to overtime tied 17-17.

12:51 p.m.: FINAL: Jets 31, Bears 10. Mike White threw three touchdowns and the Jets covered as 7½-point favorites in a battle of backup QBs. Trevor Siemian played after being injured in warmups for the Bears. The game went over the total of 36½.

12:49 p.m.: What a grab by David Njoku and the Browns are knotted 17-17 with the Buccaneers in the final 32 seconds. The Buccaneers are -170 on the live line (Browns +140).

12:48 p.m.: FINAL: Commanders 19, Falcons 13. The Commanders intercepted Marcus Mariota in the end zone in the final minute and ended the game thanks to a running-into-the-punter penalty to cover as 3½-point favorites. The game stayed under the total of 40½.

12:43 p.m.: Marcus Mariota’s pass is deflected and picked off in the end zone by the Commanders with 58 seconds left. THe Commanders lead 19-13 and are covering as 3½-point favorites. The Falcons have three timeouts.

12:31 p.m.: Tee Higgins grabs the 27-yard touchdown from Joe Burrow and the Bengals lead 20-13 over the Titans early in the fourth quarter. The Bengals are -380 on the live line (Titans +290), total 42½.

12:29 p.m.: The Commanders punt away the ball to the Falcons leading 19-13 with 5:03 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Commanders are -550 on the live line (Falcons +400).

12:18 p.m.: Full disclosure, with seven games on the TV screen we didn’t notice that Trevor Siemian is quarterbacking the Bears, not Nathan Peterman. Not that it matters at this point with the Jets leading 31-10 at the start of the fourth quarter.

12:10 p.m.: Mike White is a golden god. Even his handoffs turn into touchdowns. Ty Johnson bolts 32 yards, and the Jets lead the Bears 31-10 with 2:28 left in the third quarter.

11:59 a.m.: Mike White’s third touchdown pass puts the Jets ahead 24-10 over the Bears with 6:35 remaining in the third quarter. They are going to build a statue of him in East Rutherford, N.J. The Jets are -2500 on the live line (Bears +1100), total 46½.

11:56 a.m.: Second-half line: Ravens -2½, total 21½.

11:53 a.m.: Sam Darnold with his version of the Holy Roller. The Panthers lead the Broncos 17-3 with 7:15 to go in the third quarter. The Panthers are -1400 on the live line (Broncos +800), total 32½.

11:52 a.m.: HALFTIME: Jaguars 10, Ravens 9. First-half winners: Jaguars +2½, under 21. Riley Patterson made a 22-yard field goal with nine seconds left in the second quarter to cash the money line on the underdogs. The Ravens aren’t very good.

11:41 a.m.: The weather is impacting a number of these games There’s wind in Tennessee and Cleveland. It looks rainy in Jets-Bears and Falcons-Commanders games.

11:36 a.m.: Second-half line: Dolphins -6½, total 20½.

11:34 a.m.: Second-half line: Titans -2, total 21½.

11:32 a.m.: HALFTIME: Dolphins 30, Texans 0. First-half winners: Dolphins -8½, over 23½. Tua Tagovailoa picked apart the Texans secondary, and the Dolphins defense added a touchdown. The Texans have 32 total yards and three first downs.

11:30 a.m.: HALFTIME: Titans 10, Bengals 10. First-half winners: Titans +½, under 20½. Caleb Shudak missed a 35-yard field-goal attempt with seven seconds left that would have cashed the Titans first-half money line and sent the total over.

11:28 a.m.: Second-half line: Broncos -1½, total 17.

Second-half line: Buccaneers -3, total 21.

Second-half line: Jets -1, total 18½.

11:25 a.m.: HALFTIME: Panthers 10, Broncos 3. First-half winners: Panthers +½, under 17½. Sam Darnold threw a first-quarter touchdown to D.J. Moore to help the Panthers cover.

11:24 a.m.: HALFTIME: Jets 17, Bears 10. First-half winners: Jets -4½, over 17½. Greg Zuerlein booted a 57-yard field goal with 12 seconds left in the second quarter to give the Jets the cover against the short-handed Bears.

11:22 a.m.: Second-half line: Commanders -3, total 21.

11:21 a.m.: HALFTIME: Browns 10, Buccaneers 10. First-half winners: Browns +2½, under 20½. Ryan Succop made a 42-yard field goal for the Buccaneers with 39 seconds left in the first half to run the Browns money-line tickets.

11:17 a.m.: HALFTIME: Falcons 10, Commanders 10. First-half winners: Falcons +3, over 19½. Marcus Mariota has a touchdown pass, and the Falcons’ vaunted rushing attack is churning out yardage for the underdogs. Joey Slye’s 30-yard field goal with 1:50 left in the half sent the total over. Younghoe Koo’s 58-yard attempt as time expired was short and would have cashed the Falcons money line.

11:12 a.m.: Scoop and score for the Dolphins, who now lead 27-0 with 4:59 remaining in the second quarter and are easily covering as 14-point favorites. The Texans have 18 yards on 20 total plays. Lovie Smith needs to retire from coaching. It was a good run.

10:56 a.m.: Anyone with a Derrick Henry first TD ticket just threw up in their mouth. He breaks free for a big play, but fumbled before the goal line. Treylon Burks recovered in the end zone for a Titans touchdown and a 10-3 lead with 11:15 left in the second quarter. The Titans are -200 on the live line (Bengals +165), total 43½.

10:51 a.m.: Jeff Wilson Jr.’s touchdown run puts the Dolphins up 17-0 over the Texans with 12:22 left in the second quarter. Miami is covering as 14-point favorites.

10:42 a.m.: After all that noise, the Bears are leading the Jets 10-7 early in the second quarter with Nathan Peterman steering the ship. The Bears are +155 on the live line (Jets -190), total 45½.

10:11 a.m.: Ravens (-3, 43, -165) at Jaguars (+145), 10:25 a.m.

10:07 a.m.: Big bets @CaesarsSports:

10:02 a.m.: The Ravens-Jaguars game is in a weather delay and scheduled to begin at 10:25 a.m. Pacific time. Hold all tickets.

10:01 a.m.: We are off and running.

9:56 a.m.: Update from Station Casinos:

9:48 a.m.: The story at BetMGM:

Public teams, NFL Week 12:

— 72% on Buccaneers -3

— 61% on Titans +1½

— 65% on Dolphins -14

— 69% on Commanders -4

— 86% on Ravens -3½

— 81% on Chargers -2½

— 81% on Seahawks -3½

— 67% on Rams +14½

— 62% on Eagles -6½

— 70% on Steelers +2½

Most bet player props:

— Terry McLaurin over 62½ receiving yards (-115)

— Jeff Wilson Jr. over 81½ rushing yards (-115)

— A.J. Dillon over 29½ rushing yards (-110)

— Miles Sanders over 66½ rushing yards (-115)

— Isaih Pacheco over 62½ rushing yards (-115)

9:45 a.m.: The outlook at Caesars Sportsbook:

9:20 a.m.: Bears backup QB Trevor Siemian, who was supposed to start in place of the injured Justin Fields, hurt his oblique in warmups and is out for today’s game against the Jets. Nathan Peterman will start for the Bears, and bettors have pounced. The line is up to Jets -7½ after being -6½ prior to warmups.

Here is today’s full schedule:

— Ravens (-3½, 43, -175) at Jaguars (+155), 10 a.m.

— Broncos (Pick, 36, -110) at Panthers (-110), 10 a.m.

— Falcons (+165) at Commanders (-3½, 40½, -185), 10 a.m.

— Buccaneers (-3, 42, -170) at Browns (+150), 10 a.m.

— Bengals (-1, 42½, -115) at Titans (-105), 10 a.m.

— Texans (+600) at Dolphins (-14, 47, -900), 10 a.m.

— Bears (+290) at Jets (-7½, 37½, -350), 10 a.m.

— Raiders (+180) at Seahawks (-4, 47½, -210), 1:05 p.m.

— Chargers (-2½, 48½, -140) at Cardinals (+120), 1:05 p.m.

— Rams (+800) at Chiefs (-15½, 42, -1400), 1:25 p.m.

— Saints (+340) at 49ers (-9, 43½, -410), 1:25 p.m.

— Packers (+240) at Eagles (-6½, 46, -280), 5:20 p.m.

Notable line movements:

— Jets from -6½ to -7½

— Bears-Jets total from 38 to 37½

— Commanders from -4 to -3½

Contact David Schoen at or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.

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