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NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions for Week 4, 2022: Model eyeing Steelers, Lions

CBS Sports logo CBS Sports 10/2/2022 CBS Sports Staff
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) during Super Bowl LIV against the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium. © Provided by CBS Sports

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) during Super Bowl LIV against the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium.

Bettors should take note of the successful start for NFL underdogs against the spread this season before making any Week 4 NFL picks. Underdogs of four-plus points are 17-8 ATS (68%), which is the best record after three weeks since 2000. There are four underdogs of at least four points in the Week 4 NFL schedule, including the Texans against the Chargers (-5) and the Patriots against the Packers (-9.5). Which NFL odds should you target this week?

The Chargers are as beat up as any team in the league with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa just some of the names playing hurt or sidelined for Sunday. Can Houston maintain its undefeated against the spread record and which other Week 4 NFL spreads should you keep a close eye on? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Steelers (-3.5) cover against the Jets. Coach Robert Saleh says he expects Zach Wilson (knee) to be under center, but he's not necessarily an upgrade over Joe Flacco. Last year, Wilson ranked last in completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, passer rating, and sacks per game.

That last stat could be the biggest concern come Sunday since Jets left tackle George Fant exited his last game. New York is already without its top two offensive tackles, so they could be down to No. 4 and No. 5 at the position if Fant can't suit up. With or without Fant, the model predicts Pittsburgh's defense to wreak havoc in the backfield since it projects the Steelers to have four sacks. Pittsburgh is forecasted to win by eight points, per the model and thus cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Lions (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Seahawks. Detroit ranks second with 31.7 points per game in part because the team is avoiding mistakes. The Lions rank among the top five in fewest turnovers and fewest sacks allowed, and the offense is taking advantage of these extended possessions. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense is struggling in the post-Russell Wilson era, ranking 28th in both points and yards.

Detroit has scored at least 24 points in every game, while Seattle has yet to reach that threshold even once. The model sees both of those trends continuing with the Lions prevailing by seven points. Thus, Detroit (covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,000 since its inception, and find out.

Week 4 NFL odds, lines, spreads

Get full NFL picks at SportsLine

Sunday, Oct. 2

Vikings at Saints (+4, 42)

Featured Game| New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Moneyline
Spread
Total
NO
+180
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+4
-110
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o41.5
-110
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MIN
-220
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-4
-110
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u41.5
-110
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Browns at Falcons (+1, 47.5)

Featured Game| Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns
Moneyline
Spread
Total
ATL
+100
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+1
-110
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o48.5
-110
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CLE
-120
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-1
-110
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u48.5
-110
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Bills at Ravens (+3, 51)

Commanders at Cowboys (-3, 41.5)

Seahawks at Lions (-3.5, 48)

Featured Game| Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Moneyline
Spread
Total
DET
-175
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-3.5
-105
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o48.5
-110
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SEA
+148
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+3.5
-115
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u48.5
-110
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Chargers at Texans (+5.5, 45)

Titans at Colts (-3.5, 43)

Featured Game| Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Moneyline
Spread
Total
IND
-210
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-4
-110
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o43
-110
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TEN
+175
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+4
-110
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u43
-110
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Bears at Giants (-3, 39)

Featured Game| New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
Moneyline
Spread
Total
NYG
-155
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-3
+100
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o39.5
-110
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CHI
+130
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+3
-120
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u39.5
-110
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Jaguars at Eagles (-6.5, 45.5)

Jets at Steelers (-3.5, 41.5)

Featured Game| Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets
Moneyline
Spread
Total
PIT
-170
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-3
-115
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o41
-110
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NYJ
+143
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+3
-105
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u41
-110
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Cardinals at Panthers (-1, 43.5)

Featured Game| Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline
Spread
Total
CAR
-105
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PK
-110
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o43.5
-110
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ARI
-115
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PK
-110
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u43.5
-110
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Patriots at Packers (-9.5, 40)

Featured Game| Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
Moneyline
Spread
Total
GB
-480
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-9.5
-110
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o40
-110
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NE
+360
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+9.5
-110
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u40
-110
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Broncos at Raiders (-2.5, 45)

Featured Game| Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Moneyline
Spread
Total
LV
-145
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-2.5
-120
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o45.5
-110
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DEN
+122
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+2.5
+100
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u45.5
-110
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Chiefs at Buccaneers (PK, 45.5)

Featured Game| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Moneyline
Spread
Total
TB
-125
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-1
-110
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o46.5
-110
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KC
+105
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+1
-110
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u46.5
-110
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Monday, Oct. 3

Rams at 49ers (-1.5, 42.5)

Featured Game| San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Moneyline
Spread
Total
SF
-125
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-1.5
-110
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o42.5
-110
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LAR
+105
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+1.5
-110
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u42.5
-110
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