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NFL Playoffs Bengals vs Chiefs: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop

Yardbarker logo Yardbarker 1/28/2023 Matt Wiesenfeld, Yardbarker
© Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game in which Cincinnati upset Kansas City. That is one storyline. Another is the health of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

Yet another is whether Bengals QB Joe Burrow is the better of the two. Blasphemous, maybe, but if Cincy wins that will be four straight for Joe Cool against Mahomes. 

That includes a regular-season win this season too. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 29, 2023

6:30 PM ET

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

Total: 48

Those three straight wins by KC are well-documented. All have been by three points too, which is probably where this line is with a healthy Mahomes. 

Spread Pick: Cincinnati +1.5

At this number, you are probably better off just taking the moneyline. I am not sure Burrow is better than Mahomes, but I definitely feel more comfortable backing the healthier QB with a team that has just gotten better as the season has progressed. The only worry I have is that they might have peaked too soon, though it is hard to imagine they can't get up for another underdog spot given their history. These are the two best teams in the AFC. A subtle thing like health could definitely make the difference. 

Total Pick: Under 48.5

These are two of the best offensive teams in the league!! However, Mahomes is definitely not himself right now and last week the Bengals proved a willingness to run the ball, especially with the lead. Those two factors lead me to believe that the offenses might spend more time in second gear than posting video game numbers. The last two games were 27-24 final scores. That outcome feels a little unlikely right now. Both of those games were unders too. 

Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 Carries

The easiest way for the Chiefs to unburden Mahomes is to let him hand the ball off. I am looking for that simple approach to lead to an over on the carries for Pacheco. He was over this total last week and has been in eight of the last 10 games overall. As long as this game is close, which it should be, we should not have to sweat it. 

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