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Cincinnati at UCF odds, picks and predictions

Sportsbook Wire 2/19/2023 Nathan Beighle
Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jeremiah Davenport (24) goes for a loose balll against UCF Knights guard Darius Johnson (3) in a game at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. © Provided by Sportsbook Wire Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jeremiah Davenport (24) goes for a loose balll against UCF Knights guard Darius Johnson (3) in a game at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (17-10, 8-6 AAC) battle the UCF Knights (15-10, 6-7) Sunday. Tip from Addition Financial Arena is set for noon ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Cincinnati vs. UCF odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

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Cincinnati beat UCF 73-64 at home on Feb. 4, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. The 137 total pushed.

The Bearcats have covered 4 of their last 6 games, but failed to cover Wednesday as a 9.5-point favorite in a 75-71 loss at Eastern Carolina. They are 17-9 ATS on the season.  Cincinnati’s offense ranks 53rd in the nation, averaging 77.2 points per game.

The Knights are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games after going 0-5 ATS in the previous 5 games. They are coming off a 64-63 road loss to Memphis, covering as a 6-point underdog. UCF is 13-11-1 ATS on the season.

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Cincinnati at UCF odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:03 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cincinnati +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | UCF -180 (bet $180 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS): Cincinnati +3.5 (-110) | UCF -3.5 (-110) Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Cincinnati at UCF picks and predictions

Prediction

Cincinnati 72, UCF 68

Moneyline

SKIP.

I don’t hate backing the Bearcats, but given you can get better value on a 3.5-point spread, I would look there instead of the plus-money moneyline odds.

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Against the spread

BET CINCINNATI +3.5 (-110).

The Bearcats have been amazing for bettors following a loss, posting an 8-1 ATS record after a defeat. The Knights, on the other hand, are 2-6-1 ATS following a loss.

The Bearcats are also 8-6 ATS in conference play while Central Florida is 6-6-1 ATS in AAC competition. UCF has lost 6 of its last 8 and 2 of 3 at home in that span.

Considering its struggles at home and the Bearcats’ dominance after a defeat, back CINCINNATI +3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 137.5 (-110).

The Bearcats are 13-12 O/U while UCF is 13-11 O/U. They both average over 70 points per game as well. UCF has gone Over in 5 of its last 7 and is 5-1-1 O/U in that span.

Cincinnati has gone Over in 3 straight and has scored more than 80 in 2 of those 3 games. Considering recent trends, back the OVER 137.5 (-110).

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